PTI’s plans

If media reports are to be believed, the PTI is ready to go ahead with the dissolution of the Punjab Assembly this month. If this were to happen, PTI Chairman Imran Khan will have gone ahead with his card-of-last-resort, after having failed to pressurize the PDM government or any of the institutions into ensuring early elections. In the face of scepticism regarding the PML-Q’s enthusiasm for such a plan, some political observers had pointed out that, while the Chaudhrys of Gujrat would not want the Punjab Assembly dissolved, they would eventually do what Imran decided. It seems the PML-Q’s Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Moonis Elahi have hedged their bets with the PTI for a future alliance.

So what happens if the Punjab Assembly is indeed dissolved some time this month? That would mean a caretaker setup in Punjab and provincial elections within 90 days. That brings with it a whole new set of concerns for the PTI. There is a sense that there may be a fear within PTI and PML-Q circles that a caretaker setup may end up being an extended one in the province rather than being there for just three months as per the constitution. This fear is sure to have been conveyed also to the PTI chairman. There are also other concerns – such as Imran not being able to campaign as freely as he can across the province while his government is in power in Punjab, and his security being taken away by a new caretaker setup. And what if the centre were to have more influence over the provincial caretaker setup? How would that bode for Imran? It may be for this reason that the Punjab Assembly may be dissolved first and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly later, or not at all, until the elections have taken place in Punjab so that Imran may stay in Peshawar till then.

If Punjab’s elections do take place though, the PTI believes it will be able to get a simple majority in Punjab, if not a two-thirds majority. This would go in favour of the PTI at the centre even if the general elections were to be held later in 2023. With Punjab in its hands, the PTI would be in a far better position for elections on Punjab’s National Assembly seats. Per political analysts, the PTI could be thinking that if general elections were to take place on time in all four provinces and on National Assembly seats, the party may have lost its momentum by then. That, and with cases pending against Imran, the party is banking on its popularity wave to ‘secure’ Punjab right away.

This would be a practical enough plan if it weren’t for Imran continuing to ask the establishment – past and present – to ensure early elections. Does the PTI not have faith in the people? The party and its leader have continued to drag in the institutions in what is a political matter. The only way forward should be to be part of the political process. It is believed that from within the PTI too there are those who are pushing for talks but Imran has stuck to his decision to not sit in parliament or talk to the PDM government. If the PTI dissolves the Punjab Assembly, it is clear that for Imran Khan the best way forward even now is an aggressive posture and an attempt to arm twist the political – and any other – establishment into early elections. That will likely lead to just more chaos and a derailment of the democratic process. No one in the political realm wins in that case – not even Imran Khan.