Choices in a power struggle

Former PM Imran Khan will be in Rawalpindi on November 26, where he hopes to reignite the protest movement till fresh elections are announced. The present assembly has still nine months to complete its term in August, 2023. The PTI’s rallies have disrupted normal life in the country since April 9, when the no-confidence motion against the PTI’s government was carried with a narrow margin.

Far from accepting his removal as part of the democratic process, and leading a counter-offensive in parliament, Khan has tried every trick to obstruct the successor government, pushing relentlessly for fresh elections. He was abusive and aggressive against opponents and institutions, presenting a rare spectacle of one against all or, as he ruefully conceded, all against one.

Imran Khan has planned his arrival in Rawalpindi to coincide with the change of command at the army headquarters. His dream scenario is that the new army chief will acknowledge his street power and nudge the PDM government towards fresh elections ahead of time. Are things really that simple?

Imran Khan has spent seven months vociferously blaming the global superpower, the opposition parties and the establishment for his ouster via a vote of no-confidence. There was a grand conspiracy, he claimed, to remove him from power. He has since been vowing to lead the nation to real independence. Forgetting that he had vitiated the atmosphere by taking on his mentors as well as the superpower – and after all the brouhaha against the US being behind his removal – Khan recently made the mother of all U-turns, saying that he had put the blame game behind him. He went on to express the desire to have good relations with the US – relations based on dignity.

What should mortals make of Imran’s change of strategy to bridge the gulf assiduously created over months? He may be understandably hoping to return to premiership sooner or later. Hence the need to bury the hatchet with the only capital that can possibly help in averting a default which, according to him, is imminent. It will be quite ironic if the economic collapse Imran predicts will return to haunt him if/once he takes power. Blaming it on the previous government will be of no use when you are called upon to pull the country out of an economic deep hole.

It will not be an exaggeration to say that whatever Khan claims on a daily basis has to be swallowed with a pinch of salt. I nearly fell from the chair when Khan said that whereas the dynasties were brought to power by the establishment he was elected by the people. How can one so easily forget the support he received over the years from the invisible forces which were desperate to enable a third force to control or sideline two families sharing power between themselves for decades.

Imran Khan also wants us to forget about selling royal gifts and the large-scale foreign financing of his party. When it comes to the opponents, he assumes the role of accuser, prosecutor and judge without batting an eyelid. However, when it comes to his own actions, his only defence is that the others did worse. His rule of the law mantra is conveniently forgotten. If he is right in claiming that his hands were tied, why go hoarse over it after enjoying power for nearly four years? He could have conceded that it was very difficult to convict those accused of white collar crimes.

Where do we go from here? There appear to be three possible scenarios. First, the establishment pays no heed to the PTI’s demands, leaving the government to face the popular march. The implicit message would be for Khan to wait for elections as decided by a lawful government. That would test the limits of his street power to paralyze normal life and try to reach the capital. The authorities are determined to use every means to deter the PTI’s onslaught on Islamabad.

The second scenario is that of a realization within the powers that be about the devastating effects of the rallies on law and order as well as the damage to the country’s economy. In a bizarre cycle, Khan is trying every bit to disrupt normal life, blaming the government for the messy economy. His predictions about an imminent default amount to hitting below the belt at a time of turmoil in the global economy.

The third scenario could be to look for a compromise to shorten political uncertainty that in turn is seriously damaging the economy. If the establishment does not want to enter the fray, it can encourage the president to seek a compromise on the timing of the next election. Will that approach steady the markets mired in a state of depression?

The appointment of the next army chief may not help in winding up the confrontation unleashed by Imran Khan seven months ago. The recurring agitation has wreaked havoc on the nation’s economy. Imran’s self-serving recipe of calling early elections has been rejected by the PDM leadership.

Will the high command, under its new chief, play a role in finding an end to the political and consequential economic uncertainty? They can also choose a cautious approach, allowing the showdown between political antagonists to proceed and draw conclusions from its outcome, rather than trying to steer the course of events in a particular direction. They are no doubt mindful of what some observers have described as an alarming polarization created by months of unrest.

Some others may consider it the din of democracy as the power struggle gains unprecedented momentum in the days ahead.

The writer can be reached at: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com