Rs800 billion

Every major ‘Long March’ costs Pakistan around Rs800 billion. Yes, there is a definite “link between unrest and subsequent economic performance.” As per an authoritative study: “On average, major unrest events are followed by a 1 percentage point reduction in GDP six quarters after the event (Hadzi-Vaskov, Pienknagura, and Ricci 2021).”

How much is Rs800 billion? Every major ‘Long March’ costs each and every Pakistani family Rs25,000. Every major ‘Long March’ costs each and every Pakistani Rs4,000. Imagine: Rs800 billion is 50 per cent of our annual defence budget. Imagine: the federal government’s annual development budget is Rs800 billion. Imagine: the federal government’s annual budget for ‘Education Affairs and Services’ is Rs90 billion. Imagine: the federal government’s annual budget for ‘Health Affairs and Services’ is Rs19.5 billion. Imagine: we receive Rs400 billion a year from the IMF but throw away Rs800 billion in a single ‘Long March’.

Another study examined “156 unrest events in 72 countries” and found that “stock market returns drop 1.4 percentage points on average after major unrest events.” Why do you think Pakistan’s dollar-denominated international bond maturing in December 2022 is yielding a return of 144 percent? Why do you think the Net Future Business Confidence score in Pakistan has dropped by 50 per cent since the beginning of 2022 and is now at a negative 10 per cent?

Is Saudi Arabia going to set up a $10 billion refinery in Pakistan? Is China going to fund the $246 million New Gwadar International Airport? Consider this: Events like ‘Long Marches’ abruptly and “violently disrupt the normal, daily routine of economic and social life. Invariably they generate widespread disorder and turmoil. Apart from the human suffering and casualties they cause, capital and infrastructures are damaged or destroyed, trade is interrupted. Moreover, given that such events invariably generate uncertainty, investment is dissuaded as domestic and foreign investors temporarily cancel or abandon investment plans.”

All marches and street protests must be banned for a year. All politicians must sit around a table and resolve their political differences – around a table not on the streets. The only beneficiaries in Pakistan’s bleeding are Pakistan’s enemies. Chaos is not in Pakistan’s interest. Please do not provide a readymade platform to whoever wants to damage the interests of our state. Please do not push Pakistan to the brink. According to the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think-tank, “Pakistan’s political class is fragmented. Pakistan has so far managed to stave off riots and repay creditors, avoiding an economic meltdown like that seen in Sri Lanka.”

“Politics is the most concentrated expression of economics,” said Vladimir Lenin. Social unrest most definitely impedes growth. Bad politics and good economics cannot coexist. Bad politics always results in bad economics. Social unrest means “sharp contractions in manufacturing.” Social unrest means lower business confidence. Social unrest means increased uncertainty. What a vicious cycle we are in: a “strong nexus between civil unrest and economic growth” plus “civil strife adversely affects economic performance and economic downturns can trigger discontent and unrest.”

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. He tweets @saleemfarrukh and can be reached at: farrukh15@hotmail.com