What can IK achieve from long march

Former prime minister Imran Khan looked quite unmoved despite setbacks before his much-awaited ‘Azadai march’ from Lahore to Islamabad, with his prime aim being to force the government to hold early elections. The task now looks more challenging after the powerful establishment rejected his “narrative” and abusive tone.

He used them in the name of “neutrality” in fast-changing political developments. So, where will IK go from here if he fails to push them to elections before time? However, if he manages to bring a mammoth crowd to Islamabad by Nov 4, as announced by the PTI, and a chaotic situation is created, things can get out of control. The possibility of calling the army under Article 245 cannot be ruled out. Is Imran ready to face such a situation and take responsibility as the PTI could be the big loser if things get out of control because it’s the most popular party? But, if the ruling coalition parties think they will be the winners, they too are badly mistaken.

The situation can lead to a no-win situation for all, so I hope better sense prevails to avert the confrontation that now looks imminent. The political conflict has certainly sharpened due to recent developments, particularly the first ever presser of the chief of Pakistan’s most powerful spy agency, ISI, Lt-Gen. Nadeem Anjum, who categorically denied Imran Khan’s cipher theory as well as his sharp criticism of the top brass of the army. So, what the ex-premier wants to achieve now is from this march and whom. He has been on the streets since April 10, the day he was ousted through a vote of no-confidence, but the move itself turned out to be a “blessing in disguise” for him, as it helped him recover his fallen popularity and he played the “victim card” well.

Before his ouster, his government was losing support and had lost most of the by-elections in 2021. In the last six months since his ouster, he and his party have won most of the by-elections, and today the party is ruling and has a government in Punjab, KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Azad Kashmir.

His whole narrative was that he was ousted from power through a conspiracy allegedly hatched by the United States with the help of the local players. He has opened his front with the establishment and, during this period, criticised its role as being “neutral.”

He also used the much debated and discussed “cipher theory.” Imran has now started the march, knowing well that under the present circumstances he might not be able to achieve or be able to push both civil and military leadership to support his demand for fresh elections. So, will it be merely a show of strength because he had mobilised and prepared his supporters for the march and did not want to demoralise them, or will he gain something from it? But, what happened in the last few days has raised some serious questions regarding the future political discourse of IK and PTI, which are arguably Pakistan’s biggest political parties and perhaps the only ones with representation in all the assemblies (they had resigned from NA under protest). For all practical purposes, the conflict is ‘one-on-one.’ After Thursday’s press conference from the Prime Minister to ministers, leaders of 11 political parties, including the PMLN, PPP, JUI, ANP, MQM, BAP, BNP (Mengal), and MQM (Pakistan), have backed the powerful establishment. In our political history, which has seen many ups and downs in the last 75 years, the presence of ISI DG Lt-Gen Nadeem Anjum during Thursday’s press conference along with the ISPR DG was quite significant as for the first time the ‘establishment’ has challenged Imran Khan’s post-April 10 narratives, which has sharpened the conflict.

It is for the first time that Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency’s chief has come face-to-face with the press to answer some of the key questions in the media since long, like Imran Khan’s secret meetings with the army chief, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, including the one at the President’s House and other backdoor contacts.

The question is why the ISI DG decided to come. Was it because the government was unable to counter the narrative built by Imran Khan and his party through effective use of the media, particularly social media, that he decided to narrate some unknown facts and also confirm media reports about backdoor contacts, including the famous meetings at the President’s House? Imran Khan took a cautious view but questioned the very purpose of holding a press conference and termed it a “political presser.”

He said he could answer all these questions but didn’t want to hurt the “institution.” There are different ways of looking at the political developments since the mysterious murder of one of the leading journalists and anchorpersons, Arshad Sharif, in Kenya. Many believe that his funeral was by far the biggest of any journalist killed in Pakistan, attended by thousands.

However, why was he killed, and by whom and with what motive? An investigation into his case could also change the political discourse as his case is directly linked with the changing developments.

The ISPR and ISI DGs clearly stated that one of the purposes of withdrawing the officer of the ISI from the investigation team was to keep the agency out of it as some people could have questioned its presence.

A day before the important presser from the army and ISI, PTI’s leader Faisal Vawda dropped a “bombshell” when he suspected the role of some of the party leaders around Imran Khan and believed they were responsible for bringing IK face-to-face with the establishment.

However, in response to his press conference, the PTI not only suspended his membership but also issued him a show cause. In all probability, his basic party membership would also be canceled, which means he may lose his Senate seat. Vawda has warned the PTI and IK regarding possible ‘bloodshed’ during the march, something which the party termed uncalled for and a bid to create panic among party supporters.

Once regarded within the PTI as Khan sb’s ladla after IK not only allowed him to resign from his NA seat in Karachi after the election commission was about to disqualify him but also awarded him a Senate ticket.

The PTI leader, once the most vocal party voice, still stands by what he said in his presser, both about the long march and Arshad Sharif’s murder. Although the ISPR DG has categorically stated that the institution (army) as a whole has taken a decision not to interfere in political matters and is confined to issues related to national security and would not cross the constitutional domain, the decision has been welcomed and hailed by a cross-section of society. Can they remain aloof from politics for all time to come? The political parties have a role to play beyond lip service.

The writer is a columnist and analyst for GEO, The News, and Jang Weekly. Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO