Imran’s long march

The PTI’s long march started on Friday on a fiery note, with PTI Chairman Imran Khan not holding back in an aggressive speech at Liberty Chowk. If anyone had thought Thursday’s unique press conference would have dented the former PM’s resolve, they were mistaken: Friday saw Imran in attack-mode – somewhat responding to Thursday’s presser and also naming two military officials in the alleged custodial torture of the PTI’s Azam Swati. It is now quite clear that relations between the PTI and the ‘establishment’ are certainly not on the much-celebrated ‘same page’, Project Imran having led to rather unchartered territory.

As the march progresses on its way to Islamabad – taking its sweet time through a maze of Punjab cities – some questions arise as to what the PTI is really looking at. With the romance over between Imran and the country’s powerful stakeholders, what exactly is the PTI planning to achieve? Political observers are looking at a few plausible options. For example, is this a face-saving march or is the PTI banking on something else? But if it were a face-saving exercise, how would the open belligerence help? If the idea is to blackmail the government into announcing early elections, and if the government does not blink, what are the PTI’s options? The tone and tenor from both sides is quite lethal at the moment and no side is willing to take a step back. Under these circumstances, and looking at our rather unfortunate political history, a very pertinent concern arises: is the PTI – yet again – looking for an intervention? And if it is, who exactly is it looking at? For a party that has now made a fanciful U-turn on the subject of interventions, how is it going to reconcile its new ‘revolutionary’ zeal with what lies at the base of its demands: let there be pressure – from anywhere, from any quarter – on the PDM government to call an early election. That seems highly unlikely, unless there is a crisis situation. Short of storming the Bastille, the PTI’s long march – like other long marches – is not likely to overthrow a government or get the government to bend its knee. This is also not 2014 when the PTI had powerful backing.

For some, it does not make much sense for Imran to ask for early elections unless it is to do with the looming November appointment. Because otherwise, Imran has had immense luck in his rising popularity the past few months – winning elections and not getting dented even by the very serious cases against him. And yet there is some sense of panic and urgency within the PTI regarding the next elections. Is it the cases? Is it because the party thinks it cannot sustain this popularity and momentum? Whatever it is, Imran is in a hurry. But the other side is not coming slow either. Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah’s remarks about Swati and Imran Khan in his Friday press conference were equally aggressive and straight out of an oft-used playbook. One would have hoped that our politicians had learnt that labelling opponents is never a good idea, since it comes back to haunt you eventually. The PTI is seeing this play out; the PDM should definitely know better. The way that things are going right now does not bode well for political stability. Protest is a basic right in any democracy. And should be allowed regardless of who is protesting. But the fears of violence have now been expressed far too often and far too openly. If the two sides do not talk, it can lead to results that will not suit any political party. In the past, there has always been the eternal third-party mediator. Right now, that option seems to be off the table too. This deadlock needs to break before it becomes deadly.