By-elections’ implications for PTI, PDM

Former Prime Minister Imran Khan has created a record by winning six out of seven seats he had contested in Sunday’s by-election baaring Karachi from where he lost in one and won in others. He must be a satisfied man and now his followers and voters await his much-awaited call which he promised would come in October.

But defeat to IK’s No 2, Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s daughter Mehr Bano may not go down well as she lost by a big margin against family’s traditional rival Yusuf Raza Gillani’s son Ali Musa Gillani and party’s internal resistance against the nomination could also be one of the reasons for the defeat.

For the PDM parties particularly for PMLN the result is like losing ground in Punjab since they lost 15 out of 20 Punjab Assembly seats in the by-elections a few months back. On Sunday, PML again lost in all except one PA seat. Abid Sher Ali showed grace by accepting his defeat and cited price hikes and organizational issues among the factors behind his defeat.

The defeat raised serious questions within PMLN and most importantly the question of the timing of the return of its supremo Nawaz Sharif. The time is running out, if not lost already, for them to make a comeback before the general elections.

Mian sb’s decision of going into ‘self-exile’ had hurt the party badly twice. First, when in 2000 he went to Saudi Arabia under a ‘deal’ with former President Gen Pervez Musharraf, which not only saw the party breaking up and the formation of PML (Q) but also damage to his anti-Musharraf narrative. In 2020, he again went abroad.

For the other two major PDM parties — Awami National Party, ANP and JUIF — the result was once again disappointing no matter what position they take like rigging etc. The fact of the matter is both these parties seriously need rethinking as to where they went wrong since 2013. The ANP should also show some grace in accepting the defeat.

The PPP result was satisfactory as they contested on two and won both — one in Multan and the other in Karachi — when Hakeen Baloch defeated Imran and this party now has record five NA seats from here as they had also won NA seats which had fallen vacant due to resignation of PTI Faisal Vawda. Only in 1993, PPP had won six NA seats from here, but that was because of MQM’s effective boycott.

There had been a debate as to why Imran Khan decided to contest from all these seats. On the other hand, the move to accept the resignation of nine MNAs out of 123 by the Speaker National Assembly also boomeranged as PTI retained its position in most of the seats.

Had the former PTI MNA from Lyari, Shakoor Shad, not withdrawn his resignation, Imran would have contested from Lyari which would have been quite a contest.

The reason why Imran contested from seven seats was simple. The result itself showed that had it not been Imran Khan, the party could have lost one or two more seats and would have had a bad impact on its ongoing movement against the government. So he not only wanted to establish himself as the most popular leader but also wanted to give a strong message to powers that be that his party is the only one which has a huge following across Pakistan.

However, the PTI also needs serious soul-searching as to how many NA and PS seats they had won and lost since the 2018 elections. They have certainly picked up the momentum after what some considered as a naïve political decision of vote of no-confidence in April, as until then the PTI graph had been going down.

Many Independent political observers see these results as a Imran cult following. He could still lead the party into victory in the next elections, but is it PTI’s following that is goes up or is it Imran’s own popularity is a question that the party needs to address before the next general elections.

The results were also satisfactory for the PPP as they got 100 per cent results. It contested from two seat, winning both with good margin particularly that of Multan. It is good for party before all important local bodies’ elections in Karachi on October 23.

The PPP, however, has still not been able to stage a comeback in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and winning in a traditional rival ‘family’ contest does not mean Punjab returning to PPP. The forthcoming local bodies’ elections would also be a test for PPP and Sindh government. Though in the past they had won Deputy Mayor Position twice, they could never win the mayor seat. Also, its attempt to postpone the LB polls failed.

For MQMP, it has already missed the bus when they decided to break up an alliance with the PTI in March this year and formed an accord with PPP and PDM. Some MQMP leaders strongly feel the ‘party is over’ and just a formal announcement is required. Perhaps the local bodies elections on Sunday would be ‘make or break’ for them.

Sunday’s by-election was an eye-opener for all as the PDM and PMLN paid a heavy price for April’s move against Imran. For Imran, the by-election results favour his narrative but would it be enough for the general elections?

The writer is a columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.

Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO