Pakistan has become the first victim of global climate change. Heavy rainfalls during the past three months coupled with melting of glaciers, have triggered unprecedented floods across the country. More than 33 million people have been affected by the massive flooding. As many as 1,355 people have lost their lives including at least 450 children, while more deaths continue to get reported on a daily basis, with thousands of injured.
Pakistan has become the first victim of global climate change. Heavy rainfalls during the past three months coupled with melting of glaciers, have triggered unprecedented floods across the country. More than 33 million people have been affected by the massive flooding. As many as 1,355 people have lost their lives including at least 450 children, while more deaths continue to get reported on a daily basis, with thousands of injured.
Over one hundred districts have been badly affected, whereas numerous settlements in all the provinces have entirely been swept away. Hundreds of thousands of livestock have died, and crops and orchards on over two million acres have perished. One-third of the country is submerged, having crippled the normal life, communication and trade. Besides property, communications and electricity infrastructure as well as schools, health-centers etc have been badly damaged isolating hundreds of towns and villages from the rest of the country. Sadly, the catastrophic destructions continue as hundreds of thousands of flood-affected families are now in misery, without shelter and at the risks of food shortages and various diseases.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the humanitarian situation in flood-affected areas is expected to get even worse. This disaster will have multiplier adverse impact on national economy. Loss to economy is estimated to be about Rs4 trillion, causing overall economic impact of 3 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Rehabilitation and reconstruction work will take minimum five years requiring at least Rs100 billion at this stage. Agriculture and the SMEs (small and medium enterprises), and resultantly the jobs have received a great setback, and will take even longer time to recover and restore.
Indeed, poor governance and water mismanagement have played a major role in bringing about this horrific situation. Had we built large dams and a series of small dams in various provinces, it could have minimised the large-scale suffering caused due to damages to lives, livelihoods, property and infrastructure, and thus colossal losses to the national economy. A large number of small dams in Balochistan and Sindh have collapsed, necessitating construction of a few mega dams on priority. Global climate change is the phenomenon that is here for some time to grip many countries for long, and what has happened this year in Pakistan will most likely happen again sooner or later. Impending human and economic disaster can be mitigated considerably if we prepare ourselves for it.
Basically, Pakistan is termed a dam-scarce country as against some 45,000 water reservoirs worldwide, we have constructed only 150, including only two large dams. More large water storage reservoirs are essentially required to be constructed to control floods and to supply water for irrigation in future. Building of one mega dam every decade was planned in the seventies, but not a single dam could be constructed in the last 48 years. It was only during the past government that construction of Mohmand Dam and Diamer Basha Dam was undertaken. It is not likely however that these dam projects would be completed on timelines of December 2025 and August 2029, respectively, as there are long delays due to a variety of reasons.
It is criminal negligence on the part of successive governments for shelving the most feasible and beneficial Kalabagh Dam project proposed to be located on the Indus River about 193km downstream of Tarbela Dam. It is a multipurpose project with the objectives of flood control, water storage, irrigated agriculture and low-cost power generation. The project, on completion, will control a catchment area of 286,100 sq km, and its 79-metre dam will create a water reservoir of 7.9 MAF (million-acre feet) total storage and 6.1 MAF live storage capacity. Its powerhouse will have installed capacity of 3,600MW. It was planned in 1953 when preliminary feasibility report was prepared by Tipton & Hill (USA), which was later firmed up by Chas T Main (USA) in 1966.
Basically, Pakistan is termed a damscarce country as against some 45,000 water reservoirs worldwide, we have constructed only 150, including only two large dams
Bankable feasibility studies were conducted during 1972-1975 jointly by Pakistani consultants and Harza Engineering Co (USA). World Bank appraised the project in 1980 and concluded that project was technically feasible and economically viable. Subsequently, detailed design and engineering was finalised in 1988 by a joint venture of Binnie & Partners (UK) and Preece, Cardew & Rider (UK), and project was launched then. Preliminary works were scheduled for completion in two years and completion of main civil works in six years. Thus, the project was planned for commissioning by 1996. Total project cost, based on price level of June 1987 was Rs60.6 billion. World Bank had committed to finance foreign exchange portion of the project that was $1.9 billion.
The ongoing work on construction of preliminary works of project at Kalabagh site was suddenly discontinued in 1991 when total expenditure on the project had already amounted to over Rs1.1 billion, and award of contract for construction of main dam was in process. Seemingly the project was abandoned due to strong opposition of some political parties on flimsy and baseless grounds. The rest is history. Project PC-1 is now buried in the archives of the Planning Commission. World Bank still shows Kalabagh Dam as one of its projects, with identification P010318, commitment amount $150 million, project status “dropped”.
Interestingly, President Musharraf had plans to revive the project and had directed state-owned National Engineering Services Pakistan (NESPAK) to update its feasibility study considering changed parameters of hydrology, demography and project cost. Somehow the politicians prevailed on him too and no further progress on the project could ever be achieved. To some, it is an established fact that the enemy country had spent millions, if not billions, of dollars in the past on a few politicians to create lobby to oppose the project vehemently. The elites wielding the power in Sindh, in particular, and some politicians in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, in general, had criticised that the project was against the interests of these provinces. It was said that Nowshera region would get flooded.
Also, Sindh remained apprehensive that it would face water shortages if dam was built as its construction would convert Sindh into a desert. Various technical, economic and political studies carried out by independent international and Pakistani investigators and consultants in different periods have strongly negated such claims and concluded that there would be no flooding because of dam construction. World Bank had also reached at the same conclusion, corroborating its earlier findings. Sindh and Balochistan have been worst-affected provinces during the current flooding. Ironically, heavy floods in 2010 and in 2022 have witnessed submergence of Nowshera and Charsadda, which were supposed to get adversely affected due to Kalabagh dam project. Displacement of population was another issue as dam construction could involve relocation and resettlement of 83,000 at that time. Currently, millions of people have been displaced without a plan for resettlement.
Another perception is that the then government wanted to promote costly thermal power generation to meet power shortage of 2,000MW inviting foreign investors, to make huge commissions and kickbacks, and did not allow further progress on Kalabagh Dam project. Consequently, the Power Policy 1994 was announced, implementation of which, inter alia, delayed development of least-cost hydropower till current years with far reaching consequences. More than a dozen IPPs (independent power producers) of cumulative power generation capacity of about 5,000MW were established under the Policy.
The significance of constructing Kalabagh Dam, which is a lifeline for Pakistan even today, needs to be realised in the wake of current and projected massive flooding due to climate change, looming water shortages for crops, and future power security. In the absence of mega dams, Pakistan, one of the most water-stressed countries, loses 30 MAF of its floodwater every year to the sea whereas only this monsoon 90 MAF water has gone downstream Kotri to the sea that otherwise could have been stored and used for agriculture and power generation. We require 120 days water storage in comparison to available 30 days storage, and Kalabagh Dam could be of great help in catering the demand of increasing population. Therefore, Kalabagh Dam project should be revisited under the present circumstances. The Council of Common Interests (CCI) has two times approved the project for implementation, having announced in May 2012 that it had no objection to the construction of Kalabagh Dam project, but no further action was taken in this direction. This is perhaps the last wakeup call to the nation to construct Kalabagh Dam, which is inevitable for the collective progress and prosperity.
The writer is retired Chairman of the State Engineering Corporation
