INSIGHT
The prolonged period of political uncertainty arising out of Panama gate is threatening the struggling economy, and the battle ground now seems to be the streets, as both the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) appear unprepared to accept the Supreme Court’s decision in case it goes against them.
The economy of the country has more or less remained in a state of dire trouble since the beginning of the current Nawaz government. This perilous economic condition has consistently been aggravated by a volatile political environment, coupled with the extremely fragile security milieu. It is in that backdrop, the current Panama controversy and the pending decision is unlikely to help the government or the economy.
Ever since 2013 elections were held and the present Nawaz government took oath, the economy remained hostage to confrontation among key political players. In fact the economy has turned out to be a major casualty of their growing differences.
How PML-N would confront with the possible outcome of the case in the Supreme Court could be visualised by its Senator Anwar Baig, who believes any decision will be a game changer in Pakistan. “Whatever the outcome is, it should be accepted by all the parties gracefully.”
As regards to the economy, he said the prime minister should convene an emergency meeting with all the major chambers of commerce and industries and industrialists and have an absolutely frank and open discussion to turnaround the ailing economy.
“I feel the prime minister is not being briefed by the relevant ministries on the health of the deteriorating economy and this is a big disservice to the country,” Senator Baig said.
He was of the view that whichever political party benefited from the apex court’s decision, it would definitely be that party’s top slogan for the upcoming polls, which were just 12 months away. When asked whether the PML-N has worked out any strategy in case the prime minister is disqualified or asked by the five member bench to step down, he said, “The prime minster, who is also the president of the PML-N, should immediately convene a meeting of Central Working Committee (CWC) of the party to discuss threadbare the eventually of the SC’s verdict. And God forbid, if the PM is asked to step down for any reason, CWC should discuss and decide an alternate name for the post of the leader of the house in the national assembly rather than discussing it secretly among the kitchen cabinet members,” Senator Baig said.
Former special secretary to the Ministry of Finance Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan too is sceptical of the new political developments arising out of the apex court’s decision on Panama leaks. “Our economy is already in pretty bad shape, and I am worried over some of the statements made by the PML-N stalwarts predicting negative reaction of the people in case SC does not oblige them,” he said.
All claims of turning around the economy, the renowned economist said, were proving wrong as revenues and exports were falling and fiscal and current accounts deficit widening, while the debt burden was getting simply unsustainable and unmanageable. “Unfortunately our rulers did not try to honestly address fundamental macroeconomic issues, and now any decision on Panama leaks could further harm our ailing economy,” Dr Khan said. He regretted that the current government remained busy in figure manipulation to show higher growth rate, and in realty things had not improved in any sector of the economy.
The cost of judicial inaction over Panama gate scandal, insiders maintained, was getting more dangerous for the economy, and the current state of uncertainty over the issue should end as quickly as possible to rescue the economy, which has forced the investors to go into the wait and see mode.
The government, they said, seemed to be paralysed as all eyes were focused on the outcome of the high profile case that has provided an opportunity to most of the government officials to remain out of their offices for a long time. Since ministers and state ministers had been regularly attending court proceedings, their subordinates also made hey while the sun shined; however, the resultant casualty was the economy which needed full attention of the rulers as well as the top officials. This is no more a secret that the country’s politics is exerting influence in economic decision making and any outcome of the Supreme Court would have its negative impact on the economy.
Meanwhile, questions are being asked in both the official and unofficial quarters whether finance minister Ishaq Dar has succeeded in building the positive narrative about the state of the economy which independent economists and commentators say, is still far from stabilisation.
The finance minister got a good opportunity to seek political mileage when last week he told the parliament that Swiss authorities have agreed to give access to the government about Pakistanis, who reportedly owned $200 billion and stashed them in Swiss banks. Dar had in fact talked about it two years ago when he had said his government had decided to bring back $200 billion stolen by Pakistanis by evading taxes. But then he stopped talking about the issue, providing an opportunity to his detractors to say that the finance minister was only playing to the galleries to hide the bad state of the economy.
The million dollar question is whether the PML-N government after signing a formal agreement with Switzerland this month or in May would deliver on this account or would, like always, succumb to the pressure of filthy rich Pakistanis who made unprecedented assets over the years by grossly violating the laws of the land - off course with the connivance of the relevant government’s departments.
The job will be done by further stretching the avoidance of double taxation treaty signed between the two countries way back in 2005 and enforced in 2008. The good thing is that there is a growing realisation in the developed world to unearth untaxed money and assets made through money laundering. This initiative was taken by Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which is expected to provide a mechanism to help inquire about the ill- gotten wealth parked in various Swiss banks.
It is in the backdrop of Panama leaks, the OECD countries are said to be enjoying full support of the United States and United Kingdom. It is to check the individual accounts of the private accounts holders with a view to take on the money launderers, many of whom are suspected to be involved in terror financing as well. But there are not many hopes of any tangible outcome to oblige Pakistan. Many see it as an election stunt to be used in 2018 to win over the voters.
Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan
Economist
“Our economy is already in pretty bad shape, and I am worried over some of the statements made by the PML-N stalwarts predicting negative reaction of the people in case SC does not oblige them...Unfortunately our rulers did not try to honestly address fundamental macroeconomic issues, and now any decision on Panama leaks could further harm our ailing economy.”
Senator Anwar Baig
PML-N
“The prime minster, who is also the president of the PML-N, should immediately convene a meeting of Central Working Committee (CWC) of the party to discuss threadbare the eventually of the SC’s verdict. And God forbid, if the PM is asked to step down for any reason, CWC should discuss and decide an alternate name for the post of the leader of the house in the national assembly rather than discussing it secretly among the kitchen cabinet members.”
The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad
