Pakistan’s national power grid grapples with severe efficiency issues and financial losses, with transmission and distribution (T&D) losses hovering between 20 and 25 per cent, among the highest globally.
RENEWABLE ENERGY
Pakistan’s national power grid grapples with severe efficiency issues and financial losses, with transmission and distribution (T&D) losses hovering between 20 and 25 per cent, among the highest globally.
These losses amounted to an alarming Rs30,794 million in FY2022-23, according to the Pakistan Credit Rating Agency. Pakistan’s geographical layout complicates the problem further, as most power generation is concentrated in the north and south, while consumption centres lie in the central regions. This distribution imbalance worsens grid stability challenges, complicating future planning for transmission infrastructure.
The grid’s instability also hinders efforts to integrate renewable energy effectively, as managing the fluctuating supply and demand requires a stable infrastructure to support the variable outputs of sources like solar and wind.
To meet the increasing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) resources in its energy mix, Pakistan’s grid requires significant strengthening. Integrating VRE would not only allow the grid to balance these resources reliably but would also enhance resilience and support a more sustainable energy supply for consumers and industries alike.
One promising solution to bolster grid stability is leveraging offshore wind power, which could complement solar energy by providing a more consistent, high-capacity renewable source. Offshore wind’s steadier output could offset the variability associated with onshore wind and solar, thereby reducing the frequency and intensity of adjustments required from grid operators. However, adding offshore wind to the energy mix introduces new complexities that will necessitate robust infrastructure and advanced ancillary services such as frequency regulation and voltage support.
Ancillary services are critical for grid stability. They include frequency regulation, voltage support, spinning reserves, load following, optimised power flow, and reduction in line overloading -- all essential for maintaining stable voltage levels for efficient transmission and distribution. Traditionally, thermal power plants have been seen as reliable providers of these services. However, offshore wind, with its predictable output and fast ramp rates, is also well-suited to provide these ancillary services effectively.
The provinces of Sindh and Balochistan, in particular, suffer from acute grid stability issues. Offshore wind power could serve as a beacon of hope for overcoming these challenges. Pakistan’s extensive coastline, favourable wind conditions, and strategic geographic position make it an ideal location for offshore wind projects. The country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) spans 290,000 square kilometres, offering substantial space for offshore wind farms.
According to a 2020 World Bank report, ‘Technical Potential for Offshore Wind in Pakistan’, the country has two promising regions for offshore wind development, both suitable for fixed and floating wind power installations. These locations, situated within 200 kilometres of the coastline, are Keti Bunder National Wildlife Park in Sindh and Hingol National Park in Balochistan.
Embracing offshore wind as a clean, renewable energy source holds the potential to secure a sustainable and resilient energy future for Pakistan. By capitalising on the country’s unique geographic and climatic advantages, Pakistan can pave the way for a cleaner, more reliable power supply
From these sites, Pakistan could potentially harness up to 21 gigawatts (GW) of wind energy, equivalent to 37.5 per cent of the 56 GW of installed capacity Pakistan aims to achieve by 2034, as outlined in the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2024. This potential is particularly noteworthy given that VRE currently constitutes just 7.0 per cent of Pakistan’s energy mix -- a figure targeted to reach at least 30 per cent by 2030 under the ARE Policy 2019.
By incorporating more offshore wind power into the grid, Pakistan could not only achieve its ARE Policy targets but also improve the grid’s resilience and reliability. Offshore wind can help reduce T&D losses by providing essential services such as spinning reserves, frequency regulation, and voltage support, while balancing supply and demand more effectively.
Officials from the National Power Control Center (NPCC) and National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) have cited major operational issues, including faults and losses, due to the integration of onshore wind power plants. They report difficulty managing onshore wind generation to align with the merit-order-based power generation system and meet specific energy demands, largely due to challenges in accurate demand forecasting.
Offshore wind offers multiple benefits that could address some of these challenges. It reduces reliance on fuel-based traditional generators, yielding cost savings, stabilises the grid through rapid ramping capabilities, and minimizes wear and tear on generators -- thereby extending their lifespan.
Additionally, offshore wind enhances power quality by regulating voltage and frequency and supporting grid voltage with reactive power. Improved tools for demand forecasting would further mitigate the issues currently encountered by NPCC and NTDC officials.
The global offshore wind industry has seen significant growth, with Europe leading the way and countries like China and Japan following closely. Although offshore wind turbines involve higher construction costs than onshore turbines and require an annual average wind speed of 10 m/s or more with consistent wind patterns, the benefits often outweigh these challenges, making offshore wind an attractive long-term investment.
Pakistan stands to gain considerably from investing in offshore wind. By leveraging this resource, the country could achieve its renewable energy targets, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve energy security, decrease dependency on imported fuels, and enhance grid stability and reliability. Beyond these national benefits, offshore wind could also enable electricity wheeling to neighbouring regions, including Gwadar, without necessitating substantial transmission infrastructure development in Balochistan.
Embracing offshore wind as a clean, renewable energy source holds the potential to secure a sustainable and resilient energy future for Pakistan. By capitalising on the country’s unique geographic and climatic advantages, Pakistan can pave the way for a cleaner, more reliable power supply that not only meets growing energy demands but also contributes to a greener global landscape.
The writer is a research associate at the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED).
