Pakistan continues to grapple with an energy crisis characterized by persistent shortages of gas and electricity nationwide. This has led to prolonged electricity load shedding and outages in both rural areas and major cities. Despite having a total installed capacity of 45,885 MW for power generation at the national level (including the K-Electric system), with a dependable capacity of 43,749 MW, which theoretically exceeds the energy requirements of consumers throughout the year, the effective and optimal utilization of this installed power generation capacity remains lacking for various reasons.
Pakistan continues to grapple with an energy crisis characterized by persistent shortages of gas and electricity nationwide. This has led to prolonged electricity load shedding and outages in both rural areas and major cities. Despite having a total installed capacity of 45,885 MW for power generation at the national level (including the K-Electric system), with a dependable capacity of 43,749 MW, which theoretically exceeds the energy requirements of consumers throughout the year, the effective and optimal utilization of this installed power generation capacity remains lacking for various reasons.
Given the high cost and limited availability of imported fuels such as coal, gas, and oil, the government has been primarily relying on hydropower resources to supply affordable and sustainable electricity to the national grid. However, hydropower faces constraints due to seasonal variations. The total installed hydropower generation capacity is 10,635 MW, accounting for approximately 23 percent of the total power generation capacity from all resources, translating into 10,593 MW of dependable or net installed capacity.
The Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) operates several large, medium, and small hydropower plants with a cumulative installed capacity of 9,389 MW and a dependable capacity of 9,349 MW. These power plants generated 30,410 GWh of net energy during the year ending June 30, 2023. However, WAPDA has been unable to fully utilize the available hydropower generation capacity due to inordinate delays in completing rehabilitation projects for selected existing power plants and operational issues at the 969 MW Neelum-Jhelum hydropower plant, which has been shut down again for inspection. The powerhouse had been inoperable for almost a year on experiencing a collapse in the tailrace tunnel in 2022 and had restarted power generation recently. The long delay in completion of ongoing rehabilitation projects has resulted in drastic reduction in hydropower generation in the WAPDA system, from 37,136 GWh in 2020 to 30,410 GWh in 2023.
WAPDA has undertaken rehabilitation, upgrading, modernisation and capacity expansion of the existing old hydropower stations, besides constructing new hydropower projects. To meet the objective, WAPDA has launched rehabilitation projects for Mangla (1,310-MW), and Warsak (243-MW), besides the phase-wise modernization of the old Tarbela (4,888-MW), primarily with the objective to achieve designed installed capacity and to optimise water-flow availability. Also, WAPDA has undertaken Fourth and Fifth expansions of the Tarbela project.
Mangla refurbishment project, initially costing Rs52.22 billion, is partially financed by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the French Development Agency (AFD). Contract for the first phase of refurbishing the oldest six generating units each of 100 MW (Units 1-6), was awarded to GE France in August 2016. Execution of the contract was due within five years but recommissioning of these old units has not been completed as yet. After long delays, four Units were completed during May-December 2022, whereas commissioning work on the remaining two Units is still ongoing. Total disbursement of funds has been Rs 27.11 billion, as on June 30, 2023. Ironically, the contractor has been selected for award of a contract, in February 2023, for refurbishment of two additional units (Units 9-10) of Mangla power station, ignoring inordinate delays in commissioning of the first six units.
Similarly, the Warsak project, known as the Second Rehabilitation Project, due for completion by December 31, 2025, is likely to miss the scheduled timeline, since major milestones could not be achieved as yet. The Executive Committee of the National Economic Council (ECNEC) approved, on July 9, 2015, the second rehabilitation project of the Warsak hydroelectric power station, located near Peshawar, at a total cost of Rs22.25 billion, including a foreign exchange component of Rs12.18 billion. The project was to be completed within seven years but has been delayed. In financial terms the project has achieved just about 28-percent progress as disbursement of funds by June 30, 2023 was Rs6.12 billion.
International financial institutions, including France’s AFD, the European Investment Bank and Germany’s KfW Development Bank, have agreed to finance the project to the tune of 130 million euros. In addition, a European Union (EU) grant of 4.5 million euros will be available through the AFD for community development around the project area and for a study of the resilience of the Warsak Dam project to climate change. The 6-year duration of foreign funding has recently been extended until 2025. Main features of the rehabilitation project are modernization of the powerhouse, increasing water reservoir capacity, and repair of dam structure. Establishing a sustainable sediment management concept for the dam and reservoir and other related activities are also being acquired as a major component of the rehabilitation project.
Constructed during 1952-1960, the Warsak Dam and Powerhouse, located on the Kabul River, is the first medium/large multi-purpose hydropower project, having four turbo-generator units of 40 MW each and a 132-kV transmission system. Two additional units of 41.48 MW capacity each were commissioned at Warsak during 1980-81, resulting in a nearly 243 MW cumulative installed capacity. During these years, the Warsak power station has been operating largely trouble-free, though it has been facing a number of problems since the early days. One of the major problems is the excessive quantity and abrasive nature of the silt carried by the river water. Operations of the turbo-generating units during the monsoon season with river water, which is laden with silt containing quartz, causes rapid erosion in the hydraulic equipment, which results in severe and chronic operations and maintenance problems.
Remedial measures like regular repairing and rebuilding the worn equipment and replacement of turbine components are therefore adapted. Still, the powerhouse remains vulnerable to frequent breakdowns due to its ageing and obsolescent machinery. Thus, its installed capacity of the power station has been de-rated to 193 MW, which has necessitated major rehabilitation. After the project’s completion the installed capacity of the powerhouse will be restored to its original designed capacity of 243 MW and enable it to generate 1,236 GWh of energy. There is structural deformation of the powerhouse due to high sediment concentration of the river water, which results in concrete deformation in the building and the spillway. Currently, the power plant is operating as a run-of-river project instead of original reservoir-based.
To ensure optimal and reliable functioning of the powerhouse, the rehabilitation project aims to replace four generators, electrical components of four units, all transformers, and install a new SCADA system and replace all six runners with erosion-resistant special coating, in addition to civil works. After rehabilitation and upgrading, all the turbo-generating units will be operable for another 30-40 years, well beyond the designed useful life of the powerhouse. Contract for civil works, amounting to Rs936 million ($12.4 million) was awarded to a Pakistani company in April 2021. Upgradation of the mechanical maintenance workshop is nearing completion. Contract for supply and installation of electro-mechanical equipment was awarded to a joint venture of GE Hydro of France and Sinohydro of China in November 2021.
Given the current situation, the timely completion of the renovation and upgrading of WAPDA’s major hydropower projects like Mangla and Warsak is crucial. These rehabilitation projects not only address energy needs but also contribute to climate change adaptation efforts, including flood management, glacier melting, and protection of watersheds, representing joint climate change action by the government and its foreign partners.
The writer is retired chairman of State Engineering Corporation
