Ambitious plan

Pakistan plans to gradually reduce its dependence on fossil fuels for power generation and to progressively shift to utilising renewable energy resources optimally. The policy framework, known as the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2022-2031, envisages to enhance current installed capacity to 68,667-MW with net capacity addition of 17,812-MW by end of the plan period, with focus on developing hydropower, solar and wind power. On completion of implementing this plan, the share of renewable energy in the overall energy mix will increase from existing 33 percent to 62 percent by then.

This will consist of 33 percent hydropower (22,701-MW), 19 percent solar (12,926-MWp), and 10 percent wind power (6,767-MW) as share in total power generation installed capacity utilising all energy resources by the year 2031. However, achieving about 60 percent renewable energy in future, which is essentially clean and green energy by definition, is misleading since mega or medium hydropower dams, such as Mohmand Dam, Dasu Hydropower, and Diamer Basha Dam projects are not to be counted in this valuation as sustainable clean and green energy, as per international standards. Construction of mega dams or major reservoirs for hydroelectric power plants, which involve river-diversions and large-scale displacement of human population, are harmful to the environment and society.

Case studies at global-scale reveal that recently constructed hydropower dams were associated with reduced economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas, and cause serious damage to freshwater ecosystems. Among other negative impacts the dam operations also influence water quality. On the other hand, small hydropower projects up to 50-MW capacity are termed internationally as a clean and green renewable energy resource, which Pakistan followed till the issuance of the IGCEP document, perhaps for political reasons.

Globally, hydropower provides 17 percent of total electricity generated the world over and more than 160 countries are dependent on hydropower as a source of energy. At present more than 29 percent of world energy is contributed by all the renewable energy resources combined. With hydropower’s single largest share, wind power enjoys 7.6 percent and solar PV 4.5 percent of total renewable energy resources. In the context of Pakistan hydropower has a well-established role in the power sector. Hydropower constitutes about 25 percent of share, wind power 4 percent, solar PV 3 percent and bagasse 1 percent share in overall energy mix.

To accelerate clean energy transition, it is important that small hydropower projects be implemented as a priority strategy. Small hydropower is inexpensive and does not pollute the atmosphere as there are zero emissions in its operation. In general, wind power is the best renewable energy resource but it has limitations for developing large-scale power generation and power evacuation. Wind Power output is intermittent due to weather disruptions and cannot meet instantaneous demand of electricity. Comparatively It is a less-efficient power resource and has higher generation cost than small hydropower though wind power is low in operation & maintenance (O&M) cost.

Solar generation can be unpredictable, intermittent, and has constraints of technology. It has higher upfront cost and poor transmission options from large facilities. Generally, solar power is associated with power fluctuations and poor energy density, and can lead to disruption and consequential risks like destablising the grid system. Merits of solar-power are zero carbon emissions and long lifecycle. The 100-MW Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park at Bahawalpur is giving extremely low output. Interestingly, 13 wind and solar projects of cumulative 680-MW capacity in advanced stages of development have been stalled since long, reportedly due to congestion in the existing transmission network.

In comparison, hydropower has higher capital cost but lower operating cost. It has stable and reliable generation achieving energy efficiency up to 90 percent, low carbon emissions, and major contribution to improving security of electric supply at times of peak demand. Most important feature of hydropower is its long economic lifetime—40 to 50 years-- that can be extended to about 100 years with rehabilitation and upgrading of electromechanical equipment. WAPDA operates many small hydropower stations with cumulative capacity of over 87-MW connected to the national grid, most of which were commissioned more than half a century ago and are still in operation generating significant energy. Renala powerhouse located on Lower Bari Doab Canal (Okara District) is the oldest powerhouse that was commissioned in March 1925.

Jabban hydropower located in Malakand District was installed sometime in 1938, which was reconstructed and upgraded to a 22-MW capacity plant in 2014. Dargai power-station of 20-MW capacity located on Swat River was commissioned during 1951-52. Rasul hydropower of 20-MW capacity located in Mandi Bahauddin District was constructed in 1952. Likewise, the 3.5-MW Kurram Garhi powerhouse located on Kuchkot Canal (Kurram River) was constructed in 1958, and 13-MW Chichoki Malian at Shaikhupura near Lahore in 1959. The 14-MW Shadiwal powerhouse on Upper Jhelum Canal was commissioned in 1961and Nandipur hydropower of about 13-MW capacity located near Gujranwala, in 1963. Most of these old WAPDA small power-stations are now planned for refurbishment and modernisation.

An overview of hydropower development shows that support for its furtherance is not forthcoming from the government or the entrepreneurs in the private sector In spite of its enormous potential. The country has so far harnessed only 10,847-MW connected to national grid, which is 18 percent of total hydropower potential in the country, besides hundreds of small, mini and micro hydropower units constructed in Gilgit-Baltistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJ&K) as off-grid installations serving local communities. The remaining hydropower unrealised potential is some 42,000-MW. Many hydropower projects having identified and initial feasibility studies conducted can be developed on a fast track.

The IGCEP has included under-construction or committed small hydropower projects of total 365–MW in public and private sectors scheduled for completion by 2031, which is far below the identified potential. These are Jagran-II of 48-MW, Chamfall 3-MW, Riali-II of 7-MW, Kathai-II of 8-MW, Batdara 5-MW, Dowarian 40-MW, Jagran-IV of 22-MW, Nagdar 35-MW and Shounter 48-MW located in the AJ&K. Projects being developed in the KP province include Jabori 10-MW, Koto 41-MW, Kurram Tangi 18-MW, Balkani 8-MW, Chapari Charkhel 11-MW, and Nila da Katha 31-MW. Two projects of 25-MW (CJ Link, Khushab) and 5-MW (Chianwali, near Gujranwala) are being developed in Punjab. There are many ‘candidate’ hydropower projects too. Rich in water resources, the KP province has a potential for hydropower generation estimated to be around 20,000-MW, while the AJ&K has unexploited potential of 8,500-MW.

As a vital renewable energy resource, hydropower up to 50-MW can allow solar and wind power to be added to the system in conjunction with other resources by rapid-response power and flexibility when intermittent sources of supply like solar and wind power are off-the-grid. It is therefore the proverbial need of the hour that small hydropower be developed in the private sector as well as in the public sector at a large-scale and on priority. The USA government has recently offered financial and technical assistance to advance Pakistan’s transition to renewable energy with a set target of about 60 percent renewables by 2031. The government should avail the facility fully.

(The writer is retired Chairman of the State Engineering Corporation)