Unfulfilled promises

Pakistan, a country of 230 million, remains among the top ten nations with lowest energy consumption per capita, which is one of the key indicators reflecting living standard. Some 25 percent of its population, mostly in the rural areas, is still deprived of the electricity—a basic necessity these days. This has resulted in Pakistan’s per capita annual electricity consumption of 474-kWh compared to world average 3,180-kWh.

Over the years successive governments claimed that implementation of their energy plans would result in providing access to uninterrupted electricity to all, rather than having surplus power generation capacity by the end of plan period. Sadly, this never happened and promises remained promises, as energy infrastructure has so far struggled up to correspond to economic growth and energy security. To meet growing demand of electricity in future the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2022-2031 envisages to enhance the current installed capacity at national level (including K-Electric system) progressively to 55,772-MW in 2026, and to 69,372-MW by the year 2031.

Cumulative net capacity addition by the end of plan period will be 17,812-MW, or an average of about 1,780-MW annually, which by any standards is not commensurate with the projected high energy needs. The programmed targets too however seem to be unrealistic, and not likely to be achieved in given timelines; some mega projects such as Dasu, Mohmand and Diamer Basha hydropower having already slipped the scheduled milestones for a variety of reasons. There is a visible deficiency even from the start of the plan period. By end June 2023, total capacity addition is envisaged 4,738–MW, consisting of coal-based 2,640-MW, RLNG-based 1,263-MW, hydel 205-MW and solar 630–MW. There will be a major shortfall however in achieving anticipated capacity addition.

Government of Punjab’s RLNG-based Trimmu (Jhang, Punjab) 1,263-MW project though currently in advanced stage of commissioning and testing will not be operational soon due to non-availability of the RLNG. Likewise, GENCO’s Jamshoro coal-fired power plant (first unit of 660-MW) may not go online as scheduled since the project is primarily based on imported coal, and it has also run into snags of financial nature. Koto hydropower project of 41-MW capacity in Dir, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been delayed and expected to commence power generation in December. Also, commercial operation of Units 3-4 of Mangla Refurbishment Project has been long delayed and the two Units are not expected to be connected to the national grid by May as envisaged.

The IGCEP has focused on utilizing indigenous energy resources optimally such as medium and large hydropower, Thar coal-based power and nuclear, with greater emphasis on harnessing renewable and alternative energy, in line with global trend. It is thus planned to accelerate the share of renewable energy in the country’s energy mix from existing nominal 6.48 percent to 20 percent by 2025-26 and 30 percent by 2030-31, pursuant to the Alternative and Renewable Energy Policy 2019 (ARE 2019). Renewable Energy (RE), also called green energy or clean energy, includes solar, wind, biomass, tidal, ocean wave, and geothermal energy that are naturally replenished resources. There exists tremendous potential for exploiting renewable energy, particularly WindPower, solar and biomass power in Sindh, Balochistan, and some parts of Punjab.

Historically, the promotion and development of renewable energy projects has never received serious attention. There has been a lack of political will and absence of policy support by the government, besides the factor of bureaucratic inefficiency and mismanagement. Resultantly, the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB), which was established two decades ago, has miserably failed to attract significant investment from the private sector in the renewable energy projects. Last year AEDB was placed under the Chief Executive of the Private Power and Infrastructure Board (PPIB) to reactivate the organization. Likewise, the government last month dissolved the Pakistan Council for Renewable Energy Technologies (PCRET) due to its abysmal performance in promoting RE technologies, which had been functioning since 2001.

Pakistan is nowhere on the global map of countries using renewable energy. Currently only 36 WindPower projects of total 1,838-MW installed capacity, 7 solar photovoltaic (PV) technology units with total 530-MW, and 8 bagasse/biomass power units of total 369-MW capacity are operational, with cumulative installed capacity of 2,737–MW (2,646-MW dependable capacity) connected to national grid. In addition, the K-Electric system has a 100-MW installed capacity of solar PV. Total energy generated by these RE units at national level during the year ended June 30, 2022 was 6,432-GWh, contributing negligible 4.2 percent to total net energy generated 153,874-GWh during the period. Currently, there are only 5 WindPower, 5 solar and 15 bagasse-based projects under construction.

Thus, the IGCEP projections are ambitious given the present status of renewable energy projects in the overall energy mix. A case in point is the proposed utility-scale 600-MW Solar PV project to be developed on fast track at Kot Addu, Muzaffargarh, 23-km from national grid. Invitation to prospective investors to participate in competitive bidding was made by the AEDB on February 15 but the last date for receiving the proposals has been extended two times seemingly due to poor response by the prospective bidders, which is now May 8 if not further extended. It is ironic that the project, to be developed on build, own, operate and transfer (BOOT) basis is not in pursuant to the in vogue ARE Policy 2019. Instead, it is to be developed under the Framework Guidelines for Fast Track Solar PV Initiatives which was approved on October 18, 2022.

It is evident that the government has not been able to gain investors’ confidence in developing solar power projects, in particular. Generally, solar power is associated with power fluctuations, intermittency and poor energy density. Solar PV can thus lead to disruption and consequential risk like destabilizing the grid system. Surprisingly, the government has not yet initiated acquisition of modern solar technology that could improve on these negative factors. Perhaps the only utility-scale solar project connected to the national grid is not a good reference for the prospective investors. The Quaid-e-Azam Solar project of total 1,000-MW capacity being developed by the Government of Punjab in Bahawalpur in three phases, could not be implemented fully. The initial phase of the 100-MW project spread over an area of 500 acres, which was constructed in 2015-16 is generating below 18-MW. The project has been on divestment list since 2016 but no buyers could come. The 100-MW Quaid-e-Azam Solar project contract dated May 2015 valued $131 million whereas it completed at $151.4 million.

National grid has had technical constraints and capacity limitations for a long time that are not being adequately addressed. As many as 12 WindPower projects, of cumulative capacity 610-MW, which were sanctioned during 2021-22, could not take-off as yet due to non-availability of the grid. Ironically, the Transmission System Plan corresponding to the IGCEP has not yet been finalized by the National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC). On the other hand, there is insignificant progress on the construction of transmission projects by the provincial governments (Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) that were allowed during 2019-2021these projects for transmission of electricity within their territorial limits.

The writer is retired chairman of the State Engineering Corporation