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In September, India threatened to block the flow of water downstream into the Indus River, Pakistan’s principal river that flows from the Himalayas; the ultimate source being in Tibet. Apparently, the Indian threat made very little headway in the backdrop of China’s swift announcement that it was blocking water-flows in India through a tributary of the Brahmaputra River in Tibet as part of the under-construction multi-purpose mega dam project in China.
In reality, however, India continues adopting ways and means of progressively increasing its water use of all Pakistan’s rivers flowing through Indian-held Kashmir, a violation of the Indus Waters Treaty 1960. Consequently, a large number of dams, reservoirs and hydropower stations are being built unabated by India on various tributaries of the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers, all of which flow through Indian-held Kashmir. Reportedly, India is storing up to 20 million acre-foot (MAF) of water on these rivers, which will lead to water scarcity in Pakistan, affecting a majority of the population.
The disinterest on part of Pakistan for not protecting its water rights, and thus not safeguarding its national interests, is criminal. Successive governments have failed to take any corrective measures, effectively and timely, within the legal framework of the Indus Waters Treaty and pursuant to international conventions.
Kashmir is located in the Indus Basin area, contributing to the flow of several rivers in the region. The Indus Waters Treaty has given exclusive control, and use of the waters, of Beas, Ravi, and the Sutlej rivers (Eastern Rivers) to India, whereas Pakistan receives the waters of the Indus, Chenab, and the Jhelum (Western Rivers) for unrestricted use of waters, with the proviso that India can use 20 percent of the waters for agriculture, and also for power generation but with precise regulations for constructing such projects, and Pakistan agreeing in advance to the design of these projects.
The Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) has been established to settle differences and disputes between the two signatories of the treaty. Nonetheless, bilateral talks on various controversial projects have never been resolved by the PIC, and were referred to an international Neutral Expert or to an international court of arbitration, in accordance with the treaty clauses. Pakistan has been taking up the issues at The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration, which is an intergovernmental organisation with 121 member states providing dispute resolution services to the international community. Generally, Pakistan does not have a good track record of winning cases at international fora, but, in particular, its chronicle of the treaty cases is apathetic.
Over a period of decades, Pakistan has raised objections to the construction of various projects - from the Wullar Barrage to Baglihar Dam to Uri and Kishanganga Hydropower projects in India, which have been designed and built in gross violation of the treaty. Sadly, Pakistan’s stance in none of the cases has been accepted in the past, and even if the interim decision was made in favour of Pakistan in a singular case it was blatantly ignored by India for implementation and Pakistan could not raise its voice—at bilateral, regional or global levels to address its concerns. Pakistan’s lacklustre performance speaks volumes for the political will, competency, seriousness and sincerity of the concerned government officials, technical advisers and legal experts.
It is recalled that the Baglihar Dam/Hydropower project of 900MW capacity on the Chenab was approved in 1996, and its construction started in 1999. The dam reservoir is designed to store about 30,000 acre-foot (AF) of water. The dam structure is thus controversial as it would impede water-flow enough to disrupt agricultural and general water supply for population in Pakistan.
India completed the 450MW first phase of the project, ignoring Pakistan’s objections. After Indo-Pak talks failed, the conflict was referred to the Neutral Expert in 2005, who delivered the “expert determination” after two years that was not fully meeting Pakistan’s stance. Meanwhile, India launched second phase of Baglihar project (additional 450MW hydropower), which was completed in 2008 when the filling of dam commenced. Pakistan had referred the case to the Permanent Court of Arbitration but its award was not in favour of Pakistan either. Though the dispute could not be resolved, somehow Pakistan dropped its objections in June 2010.
Likewise, India having commenced construction of the controversial 330MW Kishanganga project in 2007 on the Neelum River (known as Kishanganga in India) tributary of the Jhelum, the case was referred by Pakistan to the Neutral Expert seeking decision on the permissibility of construction of the project under the treaty. On having failed at this forum, Pakistan had gone to the Permanent Court of Arbitration, but as late as on May 17, 2010. The Court’s Order on Interim Measures passed on September 23, 2011 barred India from proceeding with the construction of any permanent works on or above the Kishanganga/Neelum riverbed. However, its Partial Order made on February 18, 2013 allowed India to go ahead with the construction and operation of the project under some conditions, which included maintaining a minimum flow of water in the river at all times.
The Court’s Final Award dated December 20, 2013 said that the project remains subject to the provisions of the Treaty, and there were no further restrictions on the construction of the Kishanganga hydropower project by India. It is reported that the Kishanganga project has recently been completed and dam-filling has commenced. Its 37-metres high concrete-face rock-fill dam, and reservoir having a gross capacity of 14,900 AF, is likely to cause one MAF water inflow reductions in the Neelum Valley. On the other hand, India has already developed 110,000 acres of agricultural land along its Kishanganga side. Ironically, construction of Pakistan’s 969MW Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project on the same river has been inordinately delayed, and the Kishanganga project will cause more than 30 percent decrease in water inflow for the Neelum-Jhelum powerhouse on completion, resulting in reduced power generation. Earlier, India had commissioned Uri Dam/hydropower station on the Jhelum, despite Pakistan’s objections that the project violated the provisions of the treaty. The 480MW Uri-I project was commissioned in 1997, while construction of Uri-II of 240MW capacity, which started in 2005 was completed in 2014.
Unfortunately, the situation is the same. Besides water distribution conflicts, other serious issues of ecology, geology, disaster and climate change have been raised by Pakistan in regards to the development of the projects, but to no avail. Reportedly, India plans to develop as many as 155 large and medium hydropower projects, with cumulative capacity of over 32,000MW, on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. According to the Indian documents, the original power generation potential of 10,933MW on these rivers has been re-assessed to 43,262MW. India is constructing Nimoo Bazgo Dam (also known as Nimmo-Bazgo hydropower, of 45MW capacity) and 44MW Chattak hydropower station, both on the Indus, situated at 3,353 metres above sea level. Pakistan had asked India for the designs of the two projects in 2002, but could only take up the objections formally in 2012, while the two projects were commissioned in 2013.
There are 49 dams/hydropower projects in the Chenab Basin currently in different stages of planning, implementation, construction and commissioning. Baglihar-I (450MW), Salal-I, II (690MW), Dul Hasti (390MW) and Chenani-I, II, III (33MW) hydropower stations are operational. Other reservoir-based hydropower projects namely Pakal Dul (1,000MW), Ratle (690MW), Miyar (90MW) and Lower Kalnai (48MW) projects are currently under construction, while construction of Kiru (624MW) and Kwar (560MW) hydropower projects were allowed by the Indian government in July this year. Other proposed and planned projects on the Chenab include 1,020MW Bursar, 715MW Reoli, 360MW Dugar, 240MW Gyspa, 210MW Sach-Khas, 150MW Seli, 150MW Tandi, 150MW Rashil, 144MW Gondhala, 114MW Bardang, 106MW Chattru, 104MW Tandi, 90MW Khoksar, 81MW Tinget, 61MW Teling and 60MW Patam hydropower projects. Pakistan had objected, in 2013, to the construction of all the four under-construction hydropower projects by India on the Chenab tributaries that are Pakal Dul, Ratle, Miyar and Lower Kalnai projects, showing concerns on project features and design criteria. These projects are scheduled for commissioning in 2017-2018, but Pakistan has practically done nothing so far to stop the on-going construction. Interestingly, India, though obliged under the provisions of the treaty, has not been sharing data of all these projects with Pakistan.
In a recent development, the World Bank has, reportedly, agreed to initiate mediation process to resolve the issue of Pakistan’s objections over the design of Ratle hydropower project. Pakistan plans to go for arbitration on the Ratle hydropower project. Ratle project is being built on the Chenab River as the first Independent Power Producer (IPP) on Build, Operate, Own and Transfer (BOOT) basis in the state. One of the largest hydropower projects, costing over one billion dollars, it had started construction in June 2013, and would commence partial power generation by 2018. It is strategically located between the upstream of Baglihar and the downstream of Dul Hasti hydropower projects, both in operation.
The project comprises a 133-metres high concrete gravity dam, which is three times higher than Baglihar Dam, and radial gates spillway to pass design flood of 13,814 cubic metres per second (cumecs). Pakistan has raised strong objections to the design of this dam, which could lead to flooding in Pakistan, besides significantly reducing water-flow of the Chenab in Pakistan. Bilateral talks having failed so far, Pakistan, in a belated decision-making, now intends to go to the Permanent Court of Arbitration. Pakistan has strong reservations on the construction of Kiru and Kwar projects too, but has not yet started the process of resolving the issues within the framework of the Treaty.
Water is a prime national security concern for Pakistan. Reducing the water-flow into Pakistan by constructing various dams and reservoirs on Pakistan’s rivers and its tributaries, India is severely damaging the economic interests of Pakistan. What are we, as the state and the nation, doing about this? We need to act, and time is of the essence.
The writer is ex-chairman of the State Engineering Corporation
