Can the opposition topple PM Imran with a no-confidence motion?

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-led government is unfazed by opposition leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s presence in Islamabad and has termed his demands as “unconstitutional”.

Rehman, who heads his own faction of the right wing Jamiat Ulema-e Islam (JUI-F), has been perched atop of a shipping container, with thousands of supporters, since four days now in the capital demanding the prime minister and his cabinet's resignation.

Other opposition political parties have also made guest appearances at Rehman’s sit-in. While the JUI-F has a nominal presence in the parliament, the other parties have a sizable number of seats in the 342-member house.

Which is why it is important to ask that does the opposition bloc have a constitutional option available to de-seat the prime minister?

Yes. Article 95 of the constitution allows for a no confidence motion to be tabled against the incumbent premier.

It reads:

Article 95: Vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister

A resolution for a vote of no-confidence moved by not less than twenty per centum of the total membership of the National Assembly may be passed against the Prime Minister by the National Assembly.

A resolution referred to in clause (1) shall not be voted upon before the expiration of three days, or later than seven days, from the day on which such resolution is moved in the National Assembly.

A resolution referred to in clause (1) shall not be moved in the National Assembly while the National Assembly is considering demands for grants submitted to it in the Annual Budget Statement.

If the resolution referred to in clause (1) is passed by a majority of the total membership of the National Assembly, the Prime Minister shall cease to hold office.

What is a no-confidence motion?

Any member of the national assembly can decide whether he/she wants the government to continue. After which he/she can table a no-confidence motion with the help of 20 per cent of the MNAs in the house.

The motion has the power to trigger a general election and could see a new prime minister appointed.

Once tabled, the bill has to be debated on within seven days. If the motion is to succeed then it must secure a simple majority to pass.

Does the opposition have the numbers to sail through a no-confidence motion?

No.

The opposition parties will need a total of 172 votes to get the motion approved. It currently has 156 seats.

Breakdown:

Political Party	MNAs
Pakistan Muslim League-N	84
Pakistan Peoples Party	55
Muttahida Majlis–e–Amal	16
Awami National Party	1
Total	156

But there is one other option: seeking the support of political parties in alliance with the ruling PTI. These parties have a total representation of:

Political Party	MNAs
Pakistan Muslim League -Q	5
Muttahida Qaumi Movement- Pakistan	7
Balochistan National Party	4
Independents	4
Total	20