Russia could test NATO in coming months, European intelligence chiefs warn

European intelligence officials have warned that Russia could escalate its actions against NATO countries in the coming months, although Baltic security chiefs say there is no evidence of an imminent attack.

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Republic’s BIS security service, told The Guardian that possible Russian actions could include increased drone activity, false flag operations or a limited incursion into NATO territory.

“It’s possible. It could involve a limited incursion, false flag provocations, a massive influence campaign,” Koudelka said, adding such a scenario could emerge within “months, not years”.

However, Latvia’s state security chief Normunds Mežviets urged caution: “We don’t see indications of an imminent attack,” he told the Guardian.

He said there were signs Moscow was preparing for more decisive action in Europe, but it remained unclear whether this represented concrete military planning or an effort to create fear and uncertainty.

The warnings follow Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s statement that intelligence assessments suggest Russia could use drones or missiles against NATO territory in the coming months.

Russia has denied plans to attack NATO as a Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously said such claims had “nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation”.