OPEC+ set for September quota increase followed by output pause, sources say

OPEC+ core members are proceeding with a scheduled production target increase of 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September.

The expanding alliance of oil producing nations, plans to approve a production quota increase on Sunday as the group completes the unwinding of voluntary cuts.

As reported, the seven core members of OPEC+ including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman have been increasing monthly production quotas for most of this year before pauses further output increases

The September increase would complete a phased rollback of a 1.65 million bpd supply cut originally agreed in 2023, when the group still included the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC in May.

However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions in the Middle East — particularly those affecting shipping routes through key chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz — have limited actual exports.

As a result, some quota increases have been largely symbolic, with physical production constrained by real-world challenges.

OPEC+ is also conducting a review of members’ oil production capacity, which will help determine output baselines for 2027 and future quota allocations.

Following the September increase, the group is expected to pause further hikes, leaving roughly 2 million bpd in production cuts from 2022 in place until members decide how to distribute additional supply.

As reported, the pause would give the alliance time to assess global oil demand, evaluate members’ maximum sustainable production capacity, and prepare for potentially difficult negotiations over future baseline quotas.