PTI, PML-N, PPP secured 68% of vote share for NA in 2024 polls: Fafen

In an analysis report related to the 2024 nationwide polls, the Free and Fair Election Network (Fafen) highlighted that major parties — Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) — retained their cumulative vote banks.

The non-government poll observer released its latest report titled "GE-2024 National and Provincial Elections: Votes Polled and Party Shares in Votes and Seats" on Sunday, providing an analysis of political parties' shares in the popular vote and their corresponding seats in the national and provincial assemblies.

It stated that major political parties largely retained their cumulative and individual vote banks across both national and provincial assemblies in the February 8 nationwide polls.

During the 2024 polls, the three major parties collectively secured 68% of the vote share for the National Assembly and 62% for the four provincial assemblies.

By comparison, the aforementioned parties had received 69% and 61% vote shares, respectively, in the 2018 general elections, and 65% and 58% in the 2013 nationwide polls.

The report stated that the number of votes polled for National Assembly constituencies was marginally higher than those polled for provincial assemblies.

A partial reason for the difference was the postponement of elections in one national (NA-8 Bajaur in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) and three provincial constituencies (PK-22 Bajaur-IV and PK-91 Kohat-II in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and PP-266 Rahimyar Khan-XII in Punjab).

It also revealed that none of the leading parties secured an absolute majority in their respective strongholds, even where they have formed governments following the general elections.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the PTI garnered 45% of the vote in NA contests, with the remaining 55% split among other parties.

The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Pakistan (JUI-P) received 16%, the PML-N — currently ruling the country — secured 10%, the Awami National Party (ANP) and independents each secured 7%, and other parties collectively accounted for 15%.

Closely contested race between PTI, PML-N

A closely contested race unfolded between PTI and PML-N in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) and Punjab.

In ICT, the Imran Khan-founded party secured 33% of the vote, narrowly surpassing the Nawaz Sharif-founded party's 31%, while independents captured 20%. The Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) received 5%, the PPPP 4%, and other parties collectively accounted for 7%.

In Punjab, the former ruling party — PTI — led with 35% of the NA vote, narrowly edging out PML-N, which garnered 34%.

The religio-political party — TLP — followed with 7%, the PPPP with 6%, independents with 14%, and other parties with 5%, the report stated.

In Sindh, the PPPP secured 46% of the national vote, followed by the Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA) with 12%, whereas, the PTI and independents each garnered 9%.

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan (MQM-P) secured 8%, and other smaller parties collectively accounted for 16%.

Subsequently, Balochistan exhibited the most fragmented voting pattern, with regional parties and independents securing 35% and 16% of the national vote respectively. The JUIP secured 16%, the PML-N 14%, the PPPP 10%, and the PTI 7%.

Much higher seat shares

It also highlighted that the three leading parties — PTI, PML-N, and PPPP — earned much higher seat shares in comparison to their vote shares.

Overall, PTI secured 34% of the national and provincial assembly seats for an overall vote share of 28% for all assemblies. The PML-N captured 27% of the seats with 23% of the vote, while the PPPP won 19% of the seats with just 14% of the vote share.

In contrast, smaller parties struggled to convert votes into seats. For instance, the TLP, which secured 5% of the total votes, won only 0.1% of the seats, and the JUIP secured 4% of the vote but only 3% of the seats.