PSX goes into tailspin, loses over 1,300 points to profit-selling splurge

Stocks on Thursday dropped for the second session to hover under 89,000 points as a massive correction interrupted a days-long rally, which was mainly fuelled by the expectations that the central bank was set to extend its hawkish monetary policy on November 4.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange's benchmark KSE-100 Shares Index lost 1319.80 points or 1.46% to hit a low of 88,966.76 points against the previous close of 90,286.56 points.

Analysts are blaming institutional profit-taking in overbought scrips as the main reason behind this downward spiral that started on Wednesday.

Brokerage Arif Habib Limited (AHL) in a note said the KSE-100 index surged by 9.7% (+7,853 points) on a month-on-month basis in October 2024, closing at 88,967 points — its highest monthly return since November 2023.

Topline Securities in its daily market report said the recent rally was driven by expectations of a policy rate cut.

"However, a drop in the yields on the T-bills (market treasury bills) in Wednesday's auction spurred profit-taking, reflecting a classic “buy on rumour, sell on news” pattern," analysts at Topline research reported.

Yields on T-bills dipped as investors are wary of October’s inflation figures and the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) upcoming monetary policy meeting.

The cut-off yield on the three-month T-bill was down 140 basis points (bps) at 13.8998 per cent. The six-month T-bill yield fell 84bps at 13.5 per cent. The yield on a 12-month paper decreased by 64bps to 13.0997 per cent.

In today’s session, the top companies by traded value were Sazgar Engineering Works Limited (Rs2.15 billion), Pakistan State Oil Limited (Rs1.83 billion), Attock Refinery Limited (Rs1.57 billion), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (Rs1.22 billion), and TRG Pakistan Limited (Rs995 million).

“Higher-than-average activity in Sazgar Engineering Works Limited can be attributed to spread/arbitrage transactions, with approximately Rs2.5 billion recorded in its November futures contract,” the brokerage report said.

Point-wise, the major laggards of the day were the banking and fertiliser sectors as MCB Bank Limited, Habib Bank Limited, Meezan Bank Limited, Engro Corporation Limited, and Engro Fertilizers Limited together dragged the index down by 551 points.

Average traded volume and value for the day came at 546 million shares and Rs24 billion, respectively, while K-Electric Limited led the volume with 73.6 million shares.

Samiullah Tariq, the Group Head of Research and Product Development at Pakistan Kuwait Investment Company (Private) Limited (PKIC), noted that the market was experiencing an expected breather. 

"Such corrections are typical in financial markets, allowing for consolidation before potential future gains," Tariq added.

Moreover, foreign outflows, rising industrial gas tariff, rupee instability and concerns for the outcome of Saudi investors seeking guarantees over stable government policies for a $2 billion investment also dented the sentiment.

Commenting on the plunge, Ahsan Mehanti at Arif Habib Corp said stocks fell sharply on institutional profit-taking as the earning season was coming to a close after many robust corporate financial results announcements by various big names.

"Rupee instability and uncertainty over SBP's decision on key policy rates ahead of International Monetary Fund's first review on extended fund facility weighed the stocks down," Mehanti added.

On Wednesday, the rupee weakened for a third consecutive session owing to persistent demand for dollars by importers, closing at 277.79 per dollar in the interbank market.

The financial market anticipates that the SBP will reduce its policy rate by up to 200 basis points in its upcoming meeting on November 4.

If implemented, this would mark the fourth consecutive rate cut since June, driven by declining inflation, a narrowing current account deficit, and increased workers' remittances.