Climate aid debate to take centre stage at COP29 summit in Azerbaijan

Disputes about financial contributions are threatening the prospects of reaching a deal at the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) summit next month, causing deadlock over pivotal climate aid agreement.

The UN conference, which is set to commence six days after the US presidential election, is overshadowed by the potential return of Donald Trump, who withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement during his presidency.

The summit, which will be held in Azerbaijan, will see world leaders convene for a two-day meeting, casting a spotlight on the host country's limited tolerance for dissent.

As the largest international event ever hosted by Azerbaijan, COP29 will draw attention to a nation that has been criticised by Human Rights Watch for its "repressive" policies, AFP reported.

Organisers say over 50,000 attendees are expected between November 11 to 22 in the capital Baku.

COP29 has been dubbed a "finance COP" because rich countries — the most responsible for global warming — are supposed to commit to substantially increasing their assistance to poorer countries for climate action.

Major donors, such as the European Union and the US, have not committed to specific funding amounts beyond 2025 for developing nations, despite calls to increase the current $100 billion annual funding.

There is pressure to increase this amount at COP19, with a focus on turning billions into trillions, but political and economic uncertainty for many donors complicates the situation.

Climate leadership missing in action

Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic between Russia and Iran with little experience in international diplomacy, has urged parties to make the most of the "critical final stage" before COP29.

On Wednesday, government ministers will gather in Baku to try and make headway.

"These are complex negotiations — if they were easy, they would have been resolved already — and ministers will succeed or fail together," said COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev, a former oil executive and Azerbaijan's ecology minister, in September.

"The eyes of the world are now upon them."

Observers say climate leadership has been missing in action this year, with attention elsewhere even as fires, floods, heatwaves and drought have hit every corner of the globe.

As they stand, international efforts to reduce planet-heating greenhouse gases are insufficient to cap global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the safer limit of the Paris Agreement.

"We are potentially headed towards 3C of global warming by 2100 if we carry on with the policies we have at the moment," Jim Skea, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, told The Telegraph in October.

Developing nations suffer disproportionately from climate change and are seeking a deal at COP29 that ensures upwards of $1 trillion annually in "climate finance", 10 times current amounts.

They want the new agreement to cover not just money for low-carbon technology and adaptation measures like sea walls but for disaster recovery as well, something developed countries do not want to include.

Amnesty International and US senators have raised concerns about a crackdown in Azerbaijan in recent months, with critical voices jailed on dubious charges.

"The situation on the ground is quite grim... By the time Azerbaijan actually hosts COP29 there won't be much of civil society left," said independent Azerbaijani journalist Arzu Geybulla.

The summit has a much lower profile than the extravaganza in Dubai and it remains unclear how many world leaders will attend, with COP30 in Brazil next year considered of greater import.