LONDON: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) announced on Wednesday that global temperatures are now more likely than not to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming within the next five years, marking an unprecedented occurrence.
Although this projection does not indicate a breach of the long-term warming target of 1.5C set by the 2015 Paris Agreement, experiencing a year with 1.5C of warming can offer insights into the potential impact of crossing that threshold based on the 30-year global average.
Adam Scaife, the head of the long-range prediction at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre and a contributor to the WMO's Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, highlighted that there is a 66% probability of temporarily reaching 1.5C by 2027. This represents the first time in history that it is more likely than not to exceed the 1.5C threshold, with last year's estimate being roughly 50-50.
Even a temporary breach of 1.5C serves as an indication that the world is moving closer to the long-term climate threshold. It also reflects the insufficient progress made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate warming.
The increasing likelihood of surpassing 1.5C is partly attributed to the expected development of an El Niño weather pattern in the coming months. El Niño leads to warmer waters in the tropical Pacific, which subsequently elevate atmospheric temperatures, resulting in global warming.
WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas expressed concern that the combination of El Niño and human-induced climate change could push global temperatures into uncharted territory. Scientists worldwide are particularly worried about the mid-year shift to El Niño, which, although distinct from climate change, can exacerbate extremes, including warmer weather in North America, droughts in South America, and an elevated risk of wildfires in the Amazon.
The probability of temporarily surpassing 1.5C has increased over time. Previous estimates indicated only a 10% chance of reaching this threshold between 2017 and 2021.
Unlike the climate projections of the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which are based on future greenhouse gas emissions, the WMO update provides a prediction-based long-range weather forecast.
Additionally, the WMO forecasted a 98% chance that one of the next five years will become the hottest on record, surpassing the record-high global temperatures experienced in 2016 with approximately 1.3C (2.3F) of warming.
Doug Parr, Chief Scientist at Greenpeace UK, emphasised the urgency of the situation, stating that this report should serve as a call to intensify global efforts to address the climate crisis.
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