ISLAMABAD: President General Pervez Musharraf seems convinced that withdrawal of cases against former premier Benazir Bhutto and her spouse Asif Ali Zardari is too high a price to seek political support from her party.
This is perhaps the main reason that back channel or indirect contacts between presidential aides (civil and uniformed) and the former premier have been halted for the time being, top officials and ruling party leaders, who recently interacted with the president on a host of issues say.
A few days ago, there were strong chances that a presidential aide might fly all the way to Dubai or London to meet Ms Bhutto just before the July 2 meeting of the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD) as a follow-up of Major-General Taj's contacts with the former prime minister last month. But this initiative could not transform into substantive talks.
Even indirect contacts between Ms Bhutto and top presidential aide Tariq Aziz through ARD Chairman Amin Fahim could not bear any fruit. Major-General Taj and his another high-profile colleague have had two or three interactions with Ms Bhutto during last few months, but things could not shape up for the two sides. And then came the Charter of Democracy (CoD) with a bang.
Ms Bhutto could not be convinced by political managers of the regime not to sign the Charter of Democracy, but Awami National Party supreme Asfandyar Wali Khan did honour presidential aide Tariq Aziz's advice not to meet Ms Bhutto and Sharif.
The tough stance of the Charter of Democracy signatories, mainly Ms Bhutto-led PPP and Sharif's PML-N, against General Musharraf and recent communication between brains of the military establishment and the US as well as European officials (who have been advocating full-fledged democracy in Pakistan) regarding return of the two former premiers to Pakistan, has given enough space to the political managers of the regime to rethink their political strategy regarding pre- and post-election scenario.
"The Americans and the Europeans are stressing free and fair polls in which all parties, including PPP and PML-N, be given equal and fair chance, but at the same time they have not sought any safe passage for Ms Bhutto or Sharif to Pakistan. Instead, the law will take its course if they return anytime. Ms Bhutto will end up in jail and Sharif will go back to Jeddah," an important presidential aide told 'The News' on condition of anonymity. "But if they gather one million plus people on their arrival in the country, they can turn the tables like the people in Nepal did lately," he admitted.
"These days, some opposition people are propagating a self-cooked idea that General Musharraf is losing support of the military establishment day-by-day. They are trying to mislead people by saying that the establishment is quietly distancing itself from the policies of the top general. But they must know things don't work like this in this country. He still calls the shots and will continue to do so even if rumours are ripe that the lone superpower is not at ease with his policies, domestic (political) or regional," the aide said.
This was perhaps the background in which the ruling coalition leaders were recently asked by General Musharraf to gear up for the 2007 elections. "The president has made it clear that we should prepare for the forthcoming elections with the help of present partners like MQM and Pir Pagaro in Sindh, PPP Patriots in Punjab and NWFP.
In NWFP, it could be ANP or Maulana Fazlur Rehman's JUI, if things materialise in the end," an official said. He termed contacts between political managers of the regime, ANP and JUI as 'flirts' that could materialise into full-fledged "political affairs" if things shape up as planned.
The ruling PML leaders Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi have been trying to convince the political managers of the regime as well as President Musharraf that any political agreement with the PPP could be suicidal for the ruling party as well as the regime.
A few weeks back, some political managers of the regime, who favoured a political deal with Benazir's PPP wanted General Musharraf to oust Chaudhry Shujaat and then clip wings of the Punjab chief minister, who has always been top opponents of the PPP in politics. But lately, the general opted for Shujaat and Pervaiz Elahi as his safe political bet even though some prominent voices within the ruling coalition like Hamid Nasir Chattha and Mian Manzoor Wattoo seemed convinced that Ms Bhutto's PPP was the best bet for political collaboration in the pre- and post-election scenario. Even some uniformed and civilian aides of General Musharraf were bent upon convincing the president that Ms Bhutto's party was the best option available at the moment.
They advocated that political understanding and ultimately alliance with the PPP would pave way for denting the ARD. It will also give a positive signal to the west that liberal forces in Pakistan have joined ranks to face the extremist elements.
"But some close aides of the president are skeptical about Ms Bhutto's line of action if she is given a free hand and cases against her are withdrawn by the government. As a political heavyweight, she would soon start dictating her own terms if given a free hand," a presidential aide said. "President Musharraf recently told some aides that he does not want to become another Ghulam Ishaq Khan," he added.
Ghulam Ishaq Khan was forced to resign by his handpicked army chief General Waheed Kakar as the Supreme Court had restored the National Assembly as well Sharif government the then president Ghulam Ishaq Khan had dissolved. As part of a political package, Sharif and Ishaq had to resign. Elections were held, which saw Ms Bhutto becoming the prime minister of the country for the second time.
