Besides the problem of rapid silting, there is a great inequality in the Indus Basin Treaty (IBT) that needs to be clarified by invoking its relevant clauses. This inequality is regarding surrendering the perennial flow of the three eastern rivers by Pakistan to India in exchange for equivalent storage water at Tarbela and Mangla on the Indus and Jehlum. The fact is that storage water cannot be the substitute of perennial flow. This is because the death of storage starts the day it is built. Therefore storage water is not the substitute of perennial water unless perennial storage is created continuously after silting or the old supply of water surrendered is restored.
Pakistan is entitled to get perennial storage to maintain perennial flow as a substitute in the IBT. The two (waters) that is perennial flow and flow from storage cannot be equated. The Government of Pakistan should study this serious issue of unequal replacement in the IBT. Ignorance of the benefits of the 35 maf Katzarah dam by WAPDA in the Water Vision 2016 would result in the destruction of agriculture in the Indus Basin where the lands of Punjab and Sindh would seriously suffer. No new land would be brought under irrigation to meet the food requirements of a population of 30 crore by the year 2030. Moreover, cheap hydropower would not be available.
Katzarah dam would transform Pakistan from a water-starved state to a very rich agriculture state. Let us save Pakistan from this desolate and catastrophic scenario which would be the result of shortage of water, power and food. The myopic Water Vision 2016 prepared by WAPDA should be revised by President Musharraf who is a great proponent of dams. The president has been kept in the dark about the storage projects in Water Vision 2016 and about the water requirements of today. He should know that Munda dam is basically a power dam and not a storage dam. Its storage capacity is only 0.67 maf and it will silt up soon. The power generation capacity is 740 MW.
The Kurram Tangi dam has a small storage capacity of about 0.8 maf. Both are local dams to serve local areas. These are best for local areas. Dams meant for the Indus basin are to store the Indus river waters. The Akhori dam with a height of 250 feet has an indirect storage capacity of 3.3 maf diverting water from the raised Tarbela reservoir into other valleys across the country's drainage and communication system. Akhori dam has already rejected by Dr Pieter Lieftnick, Head of the World Bank team, due to its weak foundation.
Gariala dam has superseded Akhori dam. This fact is concealed by WAPDA from the president. Refer to pages 266, 269, 292 of Dr Pieter Lieftnick's report. On the contrary, WAPDA has arbitrarily raised the height of Akhori Dam from 250 feet on weak foundation to 420 feet simply to increase the storage capacity at the cost of the safety of the dam. WAPDA has played a very risky game through local consultants and inexperienced staff. Kalabagh Dam has been very controversial for the past 30 years despite the fact that the pre-feasibility of Basha Dam was established in 1981.
President Musharraf ended the controversy and announced the construction of Basha dam. If Punjab still insists on Kalabagh dam, it is suggested that a high level unrestricted low-level sluicing barrage be built on a site upstream of the Kalabagh Dam site avoiding the Soan river flow. The barrage would have a gross storage capacity of 3.5 maf and a power generation capacity of about 1500 MW. The barrage will not affect any province, as its storage would be confined to the valley. No population would be displaced nor land affected. The barrage would serve as a balancing reservoir to regulate the flow of Indus between water and power requirements. There would be no silting problem. It would have a better function than the Chashma barrage that has a storage capacity of about 0.5 maf.
Katzarah, however, is basically a storage dam for Punjab and Sindh on a perpetual basis for progressive and sustainable agriculture. Katzarah is direly needed to create 35 maf of storage capacity to meet the urgent water requirements of 22 maf. Basha is the second best dam after Katzarah but it cannot meet the water requirement of 22 maf.
The Water Vision 2016 calls for the building of three dams on the Indus but WAPDA has given the president the impression that it is building five dams. Munda and Kurram Tangi are local and provincial dams with very small storage capacities for local and urgent use. There are three mega dams for storing the water of the Indus River. One is Basha with a storage capacity of 6.4 maf which has already started. Basha will generate 4500 MW of power. Next is the controversial Kalabagh dam with a storage capacity of 6.4 maf and dependable power generation capacity of 1460 MW. The third is the Akhori dam with a storage capacity of 3.3 maf but it is rejected by the World Bank. It has no power component. The combined storage of these three comes to 16.1 maf with rapid silting and a short lifespan.
The revised cost of Kalabagh is about $18 billion, the cost of arbitrarily raised Akhori dam comes to about $18 billion and the cost of Basha is $6.5 billion. The total cost comes to $42.5 billion. Their combined power generation capacity is about 6000 MW. The lifespan of these dams is less than 80 years. Against all these dams under the Water Vision 2016, the cost of Katzarah comes up to $7 billion to store 35 maf of water, generate 15,000 MW of power and have a lifespan of more than 1000 years besides its unique function of watershed management.
The writer is former chairman of IRSA
Email: drikram@dsl.net.pk
