For ordinary Pakistanis, largely fed on stories that favour fiction over facts, Imran Khan was no phantasmagoric hero. He was real. Bold and brave enough to look the enemy in the eye and often returned victorious rather than vanquished against the perceived impregnable competitors. He changed the way Pakistan played cricket. Draws were no longer acceptable for getting trounced was preferable in pursuit of triumph. But that was cricket.
Expecting similar feats of him as a politician at home and diplomat abroad could be problematic. Parallels are being drawn between him lifting the 1992 Cricket World Cup trophy by beating a stronger English side and his winning the apex political slot ever since his party thrashed political opponents in the recent elections. Caution and humility helps when challenges are real and robust. It is far too early anyway to predict for how long fate would favour him or the “friends” start thinking of changing their mind. Politics is a much more nuanced performance of human skills than bowling or batting.
Initial hiccups aside, where the debate is still revolving around the mundane – helicopter rides and unintelligent outbursts by his comrades in public and private settings – the prime minister needs to show he is capable of taking important political decisions – on his own or in consultation with all stakeholders. If it were for Imran’s choosing, many of his political companions would not have been allowed into his party, let alone in the debating chambers of his Banigala residence. But the institutional fragmentation and erosion of ability to constructively govern Pakistan has reduced the standards of stewardship to a level where many politicians now firmly believe that making daily statements constitutes statesmanship.
If the often-quoted dictum that the foreign policy of a government necessarily reflects its domestic priorities is taken at face value, the prospect of Pakistan maintaining balanced and fruitful regional and international relations appears to be tantamount to scaling K2 bare-footed and without appropriate insulating gear. Gone are the days when Pakistan considered siding with Washington as a safe and rewarding perennial option. By putting all eggs in the American basket for almost 70 years, Islamabad has learnt only one lesson. It was wrong all along. Will Washington agree to that change of heart? Only time will tell.
The next few weeks would test whether Imran’s untrained team was amply padded up for the regional and international pace attack. Pakistan is not known for making friends or foes on the basis of its own national interests. Interestingly, Imran is hardly famous for funambulist exactitude. He needs private tuition in the art of diplomacy and tactical finesse. Who knows, his trip to General Headquarters on Thursday might well have been the first lesson on foreign policy issues for he would need all the help from the institutional set up when important international personalities start landing in Pakistan next week.
The prime minister must start putting in extra hours to learn how to balance his private and public life. Stories of his fairy-tale private life and boisterous public engagements must be left behind for he now heads a nuclear-armed state in one of the most volatile geographic settings. He needs to understand that old relationships can’t be whimsically dispensed with for the sake of the presumed quixotic future promised by new friends. Hence balancing between Washington and Beijing is a must, but it must not come at the cost of national interests.
China can be expected to understand Pakistan’s predicament. But how long can Beijing wait for a country that has gotten used to hand-holding? Pakistan does not need to abandon its Western friends in order to make a new one in the East. Islamabad can maintain both by invoking a balance in relationships. Ties with Washington have been frozen for some time now. Imaginative employment of innuendo and pointblank denial of diplomatic exchanges won’t help. Immaturity in international dealings leads only to global embarrassment.
Similarly, hoping our words would tame the ages-old power struggle in the Middle East would be a fallacy. Things are neither easy nor easily resolvable. Iran has taken a lead in congratulating Imran Khan on his electoral victory. Their diplomatic advances are welcome but must be reciprocated after due consultation with the stakeholders. An invitation to visit Tehran should be weighed against its possible repercussions in Riyadh and Washington.
Books on Pakistan often refer to the “choice” made by Pakistan’s first Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan to visit Washington ahead of Moscow as a strategic mistake. Iran, though first to invite Imran Khan to visit Tehran, would understand Pakistan’s predicament if he makes a trip to Riyadh first, says Dr Ejaz Hussain, a London-based academic working with the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). “But Iran earnestly desires to work with Pakistan in multiple fields like sorting out border management with Iran; protecting the life and property of millions of Shia Pakistanis; a share in CPEC; the gas pipeline from Asaluyeh to India through Pakistan; payments due to Iran for using electricity in Baluchistan since 2006; mutual banking facilities; and mutual cooperation in aviation, pharmaceuticals, telecom, information technology, cyber security, steel, shipping, higher education and anti-corruption,” he said.
Asif Durrani, a retired diplomat who was Pakistan’s ambassador to Iran until May, agreed that Pakistan has successfully maintained a delicate balance between Riyadh and Tehran rooted in its policy of ensuring the unity of Muslim ummah. “States look at policies, not the nuances or personalities at the helm. Today, Imran Khan is the man with whom they would be ready to do business Tomorrow it might be someone else.”
Next week will witness hectic diplomatic activity in Islamabad. Visits by the Iranian and Japanese foreign ministers are welcome gestures, but they will soon be overshadowed by the arrival and departure of US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo and US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford.
Government press notes would claim what they have been claiming for decades – cordiality and mutual understanding. But things are no longer what they were. Pakistan needs to stand firm on its stance on regional issues, but it would have to listen to the American demands with an open mind. Otherwise, there may be trouble ahead.
It is also important to note that Secretary Pompeo would be flying out to New Delhi, where he would be joined by US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis to partake in Two-Plus-Two dialogue with India. What is gained and lost in Islamabad would be discussed in Delhi. Pakistan needs to act as one. Indications that leaning on China would ease the US pressure on Islamabad could not only compromise Pakistani stance on many issues, but would present the country as a weak state.
Imran Khan and his team must understand and accept their lack of experience in running a government and the state. This week is a good opportunity to start learning. They also need to realize that civil and martial bureaucrats are not meant to be ordered around by the elected representatives. They have important roles to play and must be engaged when required. Elected representatives are brought in by public vote for a term. Bureaucrats are commissioned through a process and trained to last a tenure. Both must work in tandem for the betterment of the state and citizens.