Saudi-led Opec cuts oil demand forecast, warns tariffs threaten growth

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast on Monday for the first time since December, citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the United States.

The Opec, in a monthly report, said world oil demand would rise by 1.30 million barrels per day in 2025 and by 1.28 million bpd in 2026. Both forecasts are down 150,000 bpd from last month's figures.

US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs as well as a plan for higher output by OPEC+, which includes OPEC and allies such as Russia, have put downward pressure on oil prices this month and raised concern about economic growth.

In the report, the Opec lowered its world economic growth forecast this year to 3.0% from 3.1% and reduced next year's to 3.1% from 3.2%. Last month, OPEC said trade concerns would contribute to volatility but had kept forecasts steady, saying the global economy would adjust.

"The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook," the Opec said in Monday's report.

Oil prices maintained an earlier gain after the report was released, with Brent crude trading near $66 a barrel following U.S. exclusions on some tariffs. Prices have still dropped over 10% so far this month.

OPEC's oil demand view is still at the higher end of industry forecasts, and it expects oil use to keep rising for years, unlike the International Energy Agency, which sees demand peaking this decade as the world switches to cleaner fuels.

The IEA is scheduled to update its oil demand forecasts on Tuesday.