The US struggles to address the challenges of declining global power and development crisis at home. Global power, which is a function of economic and diplomatic strengths and military might, is in a downward spiral for the US. Simultaneously, it is trying to combat a worsening economy, rising inequality, and deep-rooted challenges of poverty and food insecurity. The deteriorating skill development sector and education disparities further aggravate the situation. This compelled policymakers and state agents to ponder how to tackle these challenges and what to do.
The US had two choices: reinvigorate growth, invest in education and skill development, and leave hegemonic aspiration or build an image at the global level, or blame China and adopt a coercive and containment policy. Unfortunately, it chose the second option and started a new Cold War against China. It believed that if it could win the Cold War against the USSR, then why not against China? However, many people doubt it due to multiple factors.
First, China has cultivated an unwavering spirit, determination, and ability to protect its sovereignty and interests. For instance, after establishing the People’s Republic of China, the country faced numerous challenges. The US and Western nations refused to recognize China and denied its right to UN membership and a seat in the Security Council. The economy struggled, and China was behind in all economic and social development indicators. China was an impoverished country, home to over 80% poverty and rising food insecurity.
On the other hand, during the 1960s, USSR began to create problems for China and wanted it to adhere to Soviet policies. Ultimately, the USSR instigated a conflict with China. The situation became increasingly tense as two superpowers (USSR and the US), the Western bloc, and their allies were aligned against China. Two neighboring countries (USSR and India) were also engaged in conflicts. In summary, China was isolated and had limited opportunities to develop and modernize its industry and economy. Imagine a scenario: the situation would be alarming and could compel anyone to compromise. However, China refused to make concessions or bow down to anyone.
In this context, will China now compromise on its sovereignty and development interests? No, because modern China is strong and innovative with a global standing. China has graduated from a poverty-ridden country to a poverty-free country. Once the recipient of aid, is fast becoming a leading donor. It has established many global aid and development programs, such as the South-South Cooperation Fund, Kunming Biodiversity Fund, Global Development Initiative (GDI), etc.
Second, China is deeply integrated into the global system. China is the biggest trader, with a trade volume of US$6.1 trillion and 150 trade partner countries. It is pertinent to mention that China’s trade increased from US$4 trillion to US$6.1 trillion between 2017 and 2024 after President Trump launched the tariff war. CIIE has turned China into a lucrative market for innovators and demonstrates China’s commitment to opening its market and further integrating into the global system. The BRI is the biggest investment and connectivity initiative, with 153 members. It is bringing benefits to everyone, regardless of their membership with BRI. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, with 110 members, presents a model of an apolitical and non-western financial institute.
Moreover, China accounts for nearly 30% of global growth and 31.6% of global production. Consequently, any attempt to isolate China from the global economic system would be a step toward triggering a worldwide recession.
Second, tactics like undermining ideology, democracy, or governance cannot be applied to China. Why? China features a well-functioning democracy, the Whole Process People’s Democracy, along with a people-centric governance system that prioritizes the people and common prosperity in all policies. Decision-making is highly inclusive under the leadership of the CPC. The CPC employs a scientific approach to decision-making and implementation, guided by the principle of seeking truth from facts. Consequently, China has become the only poverty-free country in the world, and living standards are continuously improving.
Moreover, there is no ideological loophole; the Chinese leadership has consistently demonstrated a commitment to learning, promoting, and passing on this ideology to the next generation. However, under President Xi's leadership, ideological work has gained paramount importance. He makes himself available to interact with young people and instill the spirit of socialist ideology, which is also taught at the school level. Thus, these tactics will not be effective in China.
Lastly, the resolve of the Chinese leadership and the people to protect sovereignty and developmental interests has strengthened over time. China is committed to safeguarding its sovereignty and interests. President Xi Jinping believes that China must be strong and should not entertain undue requests or grant concessions, regardless of the circumstances. He states, " History has repeatedly proven that striving for security through struggle brings genuine security while seeking security through weakness and concession ultimately leads to insecurity.” Thus, China will not yield to pressure or threats. China has learned from the past that concessions and compromises, unless legitimate and genuine, ultimately lead to disgrace and humiliation, much like the century of humiliation.
The discussion above shows that China’s containment is impossible, yet USA insists on it. The analysis indicates that this behavior stems from two possible reasons: US policymakers' lack of understanding of China (VP JD Vance’s reference to peasants as Chinese people illustrates a lack of understanding and childish statements in diplomatic language) or incompetence in addressing their own problems. Successive US administrations have failed to recognize that the declining economy and global power status are not a result of China’s rise.
The decline stems from the economic rationales and hegemonic aspirations of the US, not from the rise of China, which successive administrations have overlooked. China's rise and superiority are attributable to its superior supply chains, access to raw materials, production efficiencies, innovation and technology development strengths, large market size, connectivity, trade expansion, mutual respect, and more. These advantages are rooted in prudent and pragmatic policies, a strong pool of STEM graduates, supportive R&D infrastructure for innovation, a win-win cooperation formula, and people-centric democracy and governance.
The question is, can the US reverse the process and achieve the past glory? In the short to medium run, it seems difficult, if not impossible, because the US lacks a people-centric democracy, effective governance, infrastructure, and services to support industry and investment, which are essential for turning around the country’s fate.
Thus, China’s containment policy will not produce any results and is not a viable solution. Such actions will only negatively affect sectors generating profits for the US economy, such as the services sector and companies operating in China (2024, US companies earned US$ 490 billion). The solution is to attempt to address problems by forging partnerships. Therefore, the US must abandon China’s containment policy and establish a partnership based on win-win cooperation by adhering to the principles of humanity, respect for diversity, and protection of humans and the planet’s rights for a prosperous and peaceful world.
In conclusion, the US must comprehend that power can win wars but not peace and prosperity. Development holds the master key to winning and sustaining peace and prosperity, and development hinges on economic rationales and cooperation, not confrontation or wars.