NEW DELHI: A recent podcast interview with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has garnered extensive attention in India.
His three-hour appearance on the Lex Fridman Podcast was a strikingly long engagementa for a notoriously media-shy leader. Modi discussed foreign policy extensively, but what stood out most were his comments about China.
Modi spoke positively about New Delhi’s relations with its main strategic competitor, which have been especially tense since a 2020 border clash in Ladakh — the deadliest since the 1962 war between India and China. Modi emphasised the importance of strengthening bilateral ties and said that normality had returned to the two countries’ border, even though much of it remains disputed.
During Modi’s decade-plus in power, and especially since the Ladakh clash, India has argued that its relations with China can’t stabilise until the border issue is sufficiently addressed. But Modi seemed to signal that he is ready to usher in a new phase in relations. Beijing, which has long contended that the two sides should pursue more cooperation, responded positively.
A few factors might explain why Modi said what he did, and why now: recent developments in China-India relations, India’s economic situation, and US policies under President Donald Trump.
In recent months, India-China ties have quietly started to thaw. Last October, the two sides reached a deal for their troops to resume border patrols around Ladakh. A flurry of high-level engagements came at the end of the year, including a meeting between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a BRICS summit. In January, India and China agreed to resume direct flights.
This shift isn’t entirely surprising: India-China relations, despite the border dispute, are rarely hostile. The two countries partner in multilateral forms, and they share some common global interests — such as embracing non-Western economic models and countering Islamist terrorism. Even after the Ladakh clash, the two militaries continued to hold regular talks, resulting in last October’s patrolling deal.
India likely wants to leverage the diplomatic space freed up by this mini-detente to advance more economic cooperation. India-China trade has remained robust since the Ladakh clash. But Chinese foreign direct investment has slowed down as it has been subjected to heavier scrutiny. Last year, India’s chief economic advisor called for loosening this scrutiny.
Increased Chinese investment in India could help strengthen key but sputtering sectors, such as manufacturing, as well as growing and high-priority sectors, including renewables. It could also ease India’s trade deficit with China, which is India’s biggest source of imports. A smoother bilateral relationship gives New Delhi the political currency to make a pitch for more investment.
Trump’s views likely contributed to Modi’s comments; the US president has signalled a desire to reduce tensions with China and said that he hopes to partner with Xi on peace and security. If there is any reason to believe that the United States would be less forthcoming in wanting to help India counter China, then New Delhi would prefer to avoid serious tensions, too.
Reducing US-China tensions could be a good thing for India: It would reduce the risk of Beijing retaliating against India, including through border provocations, for its close partnership with Washington. At the same time, Trump’s new tariffs against China and tariff threats against India give New Delhi another incentive to turn to Beijing for more commercial cooperation.
All this said, Modi’s comments shouldn’t be mistaken for an announcement of rapprochement. India and China are still at odds over so much: China’s close alliance with Pakistan, India’s security partnership with the United States, the Dalai Lama’s longtime presence in India, and China’s strong naval presence in the Indian Ocean region (among other matters).
India and China are also Asia’s two largest nations, and they both view themselves as civilisational states. This makes them natural competitors.
Still, Modi’s pitch for more partnership with Beijing is freighted with significance. Better bilateral ties could boost his country’s economy, enable New Delhi to focus more attention on challenges in its immediate neighbourhood, and take away a major distraction from India’s great-power aspirations.
Amid growing Indian concerns about Trump’s tariff threats, US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard’s trip to New Delhi this week was a welcome distraction. Gabbard attended a conference of intelligence leaders in New Delhi, but she also met Modi and other senior Indian officials and gave a speech at the Raisina Dialogue summit.
Gabbard touched on issues that resonate with Indian officials and much of the public, such as fears about Islamist terrorism. She spoke about the US-India partnership and the special chemistry between Modi and Trump, as well as discussing her own experiences as a Hindu.
However, one delicate issue arose: Indian officials pressed Gabbard to take a tougher stand against Sikh separatists in the United States. Last year, the US Justice Department indicted a former Indian intelligence officer on allegations of orchestrating a failed assassination attempt against a prominent pro-Khalistan leader in New York. Gabbard did not speak publicly about the Khalistan issue while in India.
India has apparently received some positive signs that Trump could see eye to eye with it on the issue. But hopes that the Justice Department will wind down the investigation are likely misplaced: Trump is unlikely to shrug off an alleged violation of US sovereignty and has nominated a supporter of Sikh rights as head of the Justice Department’s civil rights division.