KARACHI: Pakistan’s short-term inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), declined by 0.35 per cent for the week ending March 20, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The decline was driven by a sharp reduction in vegetable prices, with tomatoes leading the fall at -7.08 per cent, followed by onions (-6.07 per cent), garlic (-5.59 per cent), eggs (-4.64 per cent), and potatoes (-2.5 per cent). Prices of essential commodities such as sugar (-0.87 per cent) and Lipton tea (-1.3 per cent) also saw modest declines. Firewood, a key household fuel source, dipped 0.6 per cent.
Conversely, some consumer goods registered price increases, including printed lawn fabric (+2.9 per cent), LPG (+1.53 per cent), bananas (+1.45 per cent), and long cloth (+1.23 per cent). Prices of daily essentials such as bread (+0.55 per cent), beef (+0.25 per cent), and curd (+0.24 per cent) also edged higher.
On an annual basis, SPI inflation posted a rare decline of 1.2 per cent, reflecting lower prices for key staples. Onions saw a massive 67.67 per cent price drop compared to the same period last year, while wheat flour (-35.58 per cent), tomatoes (-29.45 per cent), and electricity charges for the lowest consumption bracket (-18.92 per cent) also contributed to the downward trend. Fuel prices also moderated, with diesel (-9.37 per cent) and petrol (-8.55 per cent) recording YoY declines.
Despite the overall dip, several essential goods remained significantly more expensive than a year ago. Ladies’ sandals surged 75.09 per cent, powdered milk rose 25.75 per cent, and beef prices climbed 21.01 per cent. Chicken (+18.23 per cent), sugar (+18.65 per cent), and vegetable ghee (+16.13 per cent) also showed notable annual price increases, highlighting continued inflationary pressures in key food categories.
Inflationary impact varied across income segments, with lower-income households seeing a greater price decline than wealthier groups. The lowest consumption quintile recorded a 1.84 per cent YoY drop, while the highest quintile saw a much smaller decline of 0.49 per cent, suggesting that lower-income households may be benefiting more from the recent price adjustments.
While inflationary pressures still exist, Pakistan has been able to control inflation. According to estimates from brokerage firm Topline Securities Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2025 is expected to decline to a three-decade low, registering between 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent year-on-year (YoY), with a monthly increase of 0.9 per cent. This would bring the average inflation for the first nine months of FY25 to 5.38 per cent, a sharp drop from 27.06 per cent recorded in the same period last year.