Syria as a country and society has entered a cataclysmic phase. With regional balance of power precariously poised, the future of yet another Middle Eastern country can at best be described as dangerously uncertain. President Bashar al-Assad’s flight from the country after his family’s absolute control for over half-a-century and an Islamist militant group’s takeover of Damascus do not bode well for the country, its neighbouring states and the regional overlords.
Pakistan may be a few thousand miles away but the last 48 hours have seen hectic diplomatic activity involving the Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, the Foreign Ministry and the Pakistani embassy officials in the Syrian capital. Attempts of evacuating stranded staff and citizens have not been successful. Nervousness is palpable and fear is real. Reports suggest citizens of some friendly countries have also taken refuge in the Pakistani buildings.
Embassy staff and Foreign Office in Islamabad, however, are choosing caution over comment.
Yesterday evening, Pakistani MoFA, posted on X (formerly Twitter) that Deputy Prime Minister Dar had spoken with Turkish Foreign Minister Haken Fiden on the unfolding situation in Syria. “DFM/FM shared the details of the efforts by the Government of Pakistan for the safety and security of its nationals in Syria. They also discussed possible cooperation between the two countries for the safety of the Pakistani nationals.”
Pakistan Embassy in Damascus ran a successful international school – PISOD – in Damascus for years when other international educational institutions shut shop in the war-torn country. Relations between Islamabad and Damascus have always been cordial, though a senior Syrian diplomat recently shared “pain” for the “lack of warmth” felt in the Syrian capital from Pakistan. “We feel we have been left alone to fight our battles. Memories of Pakistani support in our times of trouble are valuable memories.”
Can Pakistan be of any tangible help to Syria at this moment? Not really. It can, however, learn a few valuable lessons. The lightening march of Hayat Tahrir al-Shaam (HTS), the dominant militant force in the country now can be compared to the speed with which Afghan Taliban took over Kabul a few years ago. Media reports suggest that 42-year-old HTS leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, commonly known by his non de guerre -- Abu Mohammad al-Julani -- has asked the fallen Assad administration’s prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali to continue until power is “officially handed over”. Future remains bleak and possibly bloody.
Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power is being widely described as a “blow” to President Putin’s prestige and a serious push back to Iran’s influence in the country. Moscow and Tehran were often credited for Assad’s continuance in power especially after 2011 “revolutionary” uprising often described as part of the Arab Spring that saw mass protest, public violence and armed rebellion across Muslim countries in the Maghrib and the Middle East.
With Russia heavily engaged in its European war against Ukraine and Israel’s stern and punishing action against Iran-backed groups like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen, the Syrian militants saw the moment as ripe and decided to pounce on a feeble Ba’athist regime standing alone due to regional instability and diplomatic unpredictability.
It would be interesting to see if HTS is allowed by the domestic, regional and international actors to cement its grip on power. Hayat Tahrir al-Shaam has been active in the Syrian northwest for some years and had tacit support from the Syrian National Army, a militia group allegedly supported by Turkiye. The militant group, with reported past links to Al-Qaeda and ISIS, doesn’t seem to possess long-term plans for the country. As if tasked only to topple the Assad regime by unknown powers, the HTS leader recently told CNN that “the goal of the revolution remains the overthrow of this regime. It is our right to use all available means to achieve that goal.”
What next? Can HTS work along groups with different ideas and struggles of their own. For example, spread over four countries – Turkiye, Iraq, Iran and Syria -- many Kurds are struggling for political autonomy in their respective countries. The Iraqi Kurds were handed over their “ask” by the US-led forces when they defeated Saddam Hussein. Today, Kurdistan Regional Government’s Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani are sons of Masoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani, both leaders of the Iraqi Kurdish struggle against Saddam Hussein with western support.
In the eastern Syrian Kurdish areas bordering Turkiye, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) under the leadership of Farhad Abdi Sahin, better known by his nom de guerre, Mazlum Kobane, is involved in a similar struggle. Can an Islamist militant HTS and ethnic separatist SDF work together for a democratic and pluralist Syria? Seems far-fetched and unrealistic. A weak centre may give rise to regional, provincial, sectarian and ethic blisters. There are real religious fault lines too. Syria was recently welcomed back into the Arab League. The faux camaraderie did not work.
Then there are the big picture scenarios. The Middle East, with its hydrocarbon resources worth trillions is heading in a direction that could soon be experiencing a global quest for control between the United States, its western and regional allies and the slow push for absolute power by China with Russia onside.
With billion-plus populations and a gargantuan carving for infrastructural development, China and India would need most of the global deposits and supply of oil, gas, steel, cement and valuable minerals. A fractured Middle East is not a welcome vision for a peaceful, progressive and tolerant regional and global future.