The Chinese rise has given birth to numerous theories, hypotheses and assumptions. Friends and foes (opponents) are equally involved in devising these theories. The opponents blame China for threatening the global rule-based system. They have come up with many assumptions to support their hypotheses.
They constructed the allegation China is negating the global trade and economic governance system. It is doing so to devise a new system run by Chinese rules. China is not fulfilling its obligations as a great power and is avoiding responsibility. China does not support Western so-called human rights or democracy adventures like an attack on Iraq or Israel’s genocide. China challenges liberal ideology by presenting a successful example of socialism with Chinese characteristics, and so on.
On the other hand, friends’ high expectations further complicate the situation and strengthen Western assumptions. Friends try to equate Chinese rise with change in the global system or China’s desire to rule the world. The books like “When China will rule the world,” “Has China won?” and many others have further enhanced expectations. We can find a plethora of literature arguing these dimensions and suggesting Chinese way of ruling the world.
During President Xi’s tenure, the level of expectation regarding China’s global role surged, mainly due to two key factors. First, China launched a series of ambitious global initiatives, including Global Development Initiative (GD), Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI), China International Import Expo (CIIE), etc.
Second, China bolstered its existing diplomatic, economic and security initiatives, such as Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, China-Africa Cooperation Forum, China-ASEAN Cooperation, China-Arab, China-GCC cooperation forums, etc. Third, China became more active globally and enthusiastically pursued the reform agenda.
In this context, it is necessary to analyse the situation and try to determine whether China wants to rule the world or not. For that purpose, we must analyse Chinese actions from a historical perspective. The analysis of Chinese civilisation shows China always worked to maintain peaceful relations with all countries. It avoided collusion or conflict. It remained committed to non-interference and respect for sovereignty. When China was a formidable power in the old days, it never attacked any country and followed a win-win cooperation formula. Moreover, China preferred tributary ties and living in peace. The analysis clearly shows China never intended to rule the world.
Now, the question is if China does not want to rule the world, then why has it launched numerous initiatives of global relevance? These initiatives further contributed to the Western belief that China is working to replace the existing international system. Again, to find the answer, we need to look into history.
China has learned it made three strategic mistakes, which gave birth to a century of humiliation. First, in old times, China thought it was a secure country due to its geography, as it was not facing threats from three sides of its boundaries. The Pacific Ocean protected the eastern side and the China South Sea secured the southern side. Tibet plateau acted as a guard on the Western side, as the Tibet area was not livable due to low oxygen. The only exposed territory was Northern side, and China erected the Great Wall to minimise the threat. Thus, it did not invest in developing modern defence technologies.
Second, China trusted its philosophy of international relations based on peaceful coexistence and sharing prosperity. It assumed others also believed in this. Moreover, it cultivated tributary relationships in its sphere over the period.
Third, China stopped investing in modernisation, innovation and technology. This greatly hampered Chinese economic development and global status and led to its fall. Moreover, China did not focus on engaging at the global level according to the status of international powers, which made it easy for Western powers to isolate China and compelled it to follow the Western terms.
China does not want to commit the same mistakes. The birth of modern China took place in an entirely different world. The Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea do not present more sophisticated protection. Advancement in the Navy has turned Sea into major threat element. Tibet’s plateau is also unsafe, as technological advancement has enabled humans to survive and thrive in low-oxygen areas of Tibet.
The dynamics and threats of modern China are entirely different from the past. Besides, the emergence of non-traditional security threats, such as AI, climate change, food insecurity, etc., further complicate the situation, and no one can face it alone. There is a need for closer cooperation.
The world has become highly connected and dynamic. Economies are driven by value and supply chains. No country can dream of growing without building strong linkages with the world. Besides, Western hegemony and the dominance of dollar-based financial systems make pursuing independent economic and growth policies extremely difficult.
As an emerging global power, China has become the West’s prime target, and the Western countries are doing everything to check its peaceful rise. Therefore, China must build economic networks and strong partnerships to counter opposition and shield itself against isolation attempts of West.
Third, we are living in a fractured world. The global liberal order is fading away. Moreover, the “End of History” and the “Clash of Civilisations” theories further complicated the situation, triggering conflicts and disturbing world peace. Powerful countries bully weak nations. The security concerns of weak countries are comprised, and strong countries consider their security is prime.
Against this backdrop, China launched all initiatives to achieve two specific goals. China wants to protect itself against the hegemonic aspirations and actions of the existing powers. It is striving to keep its economic and development agenda alive and moving forward. It wants to ensure sovereignty, achieve the goal of national rejuvenation and acquire a rightful place globally.
China wants to assist the world, especially less developed countries, in pursuing their dreams of sustainable development and peaceful coexistence. However, it aims to achieve these objectives without compromising on dignity and sovereignty and by giving due respect to the diversity and self-respect of countries.
Based on the above discussion, it can be inferred China has no intentions of ruling the world. It wants to protect its sovereignty, dream of national rejuvenation and assist the world in pursuing the dream of sustainable development and peaceful and cooperative coexistence. In a nutshell, China aims to create a community with a shared future.
Therefore, words such as “rule the world” or “winning” should be avoided because they undermine China’s miraculous rise and give a negative impression. Opponents use these words to run malicious campaigns against China and try to undermine or malign initiatives, such as China-Africa cooperation, BRI, GDI, etc. They use such assumptions to impede China’s technological advancement by introducing obstacles like CHIPS and the Science Act.
China must discourage using words like ruling or winning. For that purpose, it needs a comprehensive communication policy and action framework to present the true image of China.