The first debate between US presidential nominees Donald Trump and Kamala Harris attracted an estimated 60 million viewers, making it one of the most watched television events in the world’s TV and entertainment capital. According to most analysis, Harris won this round. The Democrat Party’s nominee largely managed to stay composed, on-message and on the front foot against a flustered and frustrated Trump who, for once, was unable to dominate the stage. American liberals will draw encouragement from their nominee’s strong showing, particularly after Biden’s debacle against Trump in the first debate of this presidential election. With the Democrats revived in the electoral polls, replacing Harris with Biden is increasingly looking like the right choice. In the aftermath of his disappointing performance, Trump has vowed not to agree to a second debate with Harris but the former US president is known to be fickle and may well change his mind down the road should this race remain close. While all this might point to the fact that Harris is clearly on top, this may not necessarily be the case. The two candidates are still dead even in the polls and more voters still appear to trust Trump over Harris on key issues like the economy and immigration.
As usual, the die-hard and virtually impervious nature of Trump’s core supporters overrides what has been a disappointing campaign from Trump since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. The anti-immigrant and free trade former president might have lost the lead the attempt on his life inadvertently gifted him, but he is far from beaten and one could even make the case that he is still the favourite. It does not help the Democrats that the Biden administration has been largely disappointing and that their current nominee is part of it. Compounding this problem is the fact that the party has alienated a large chunk of its base. Since October 7, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have not only ignored Israel’s genocide in Gaza but have been its chief enablers. Doing so has created a rift in the Democrat base between Gen Z voters and Americans of an immigrant and/or Muslim background and everyone else. The former have taken note of how the party has not only sidelined them on this issue, with Harris infamously not allowing a single Palestinian speaker to take the stage during her nomination convention while giving ample room to families of the Israeli hostages, but has gone as far as criticizing and punishing them for their vocal anti-genocide stance.
As a result, many voters that the Democrats could usually count on might not turn up for them this time. In a tight race, this may lead to disaster, but those leading the party seem either oblivious or indifferent to the threat. With Harris showing no signs of changing course on Israel, many young people and children of immigrants will simply not vote for a party that will continue to preside over a genocide. This does not mean that they will go to Trump, with supporting Israel being one of the few things everyone in the US establishment can agree on, but might chance a third-party candidate like Jill Stein or simply not vote at all. Doing so might not change things immediately, but it may well remind Democrats not to take such a large portion of its base for granted next time.