The United States presidential election is arguably the most closely watched democratic event worldwide. With a GDP of $27 trillion, the US leads a coalition of many Western powers, including countries in the Pacific such as Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea.
The country allocates over $829 billion to defence spending, which includes provisions for military aid to allied and friendly nations, along with an additional $28 billion through USAID for assistance to developing countries.
Since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, the US has provided economic and military aid to us, historically being Pakistan’s largest donor. However, the level of aid has fluctuated over time due to the changing geopolitical landscape in the region.
The US has two main political parties: the Republican Party (represented by the colour red) and the Democratic Party (going with the colour blue). Occasionally, there are independent candidates and smaller parties, but they typically do not secure a significant number of votes. For instance, Ross Perot won 19 per cent of the popular vote in 1992, but did not receive any electoral votes.
The president of the US is not directly elected by citizens; instead, the Electoral College is responsible for choosing the president. Each state is treated as an independent entity, and all of its electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who wins the majority of the popular vote within that state.
Each state is allocated a number of electors equal to its total number of representatives in Congress (both House and Senate). With 100 senators, 435 representatives, and an additional three electors from Washington, DC, there are a total of 538 electoral votes. To win the presidential election, a candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes.
Since the US consists of 50 states and one federal district, no single state holds an absolute majority of the electoral votes (unlike Pakistan, where the Punjab region alone makes up over 56 per cent of the population). Any change to the electoral process requires approval by Congress and ratification by at least 38 states to become a constitutional amendment.
There have been various anomalies associated with the Electoral College, the most notable and controversial being when a candidate wins the popular vote but loses the presidential election. This occurred three times in the 1800s and more recently in 2000 and 2016.
In the 2000 election, George Bush (Republican) lost the popular vote to Al Gore (Democrat) – 50,455,156 vs 50,992,335 votes – but won the presidency with 271 electoral votes to Gore’s 266. In 2016, Donald Trump (Republican) also lost the popular vote by a significant margin to Hillary Clinton (Democrat) – 62,984,828 vs 65,853,514 votes – but won with 304 electoral votes to Clinton’s 227.
In 2020, the situation reversed in favour of the Democrats, with Joe Biden securing 306 electoral votes (81 million votes) against Trump’s 232 electoral votes (74 million votes) to win the presidency.
Most states have traditionally been either reliably red or blue – but not always. Among the larger states, New York and California are typically considered Democratic, while Texas and Florida are usually seen as Republican. However, there are several ‘swing’ states where the 2020 election saw a nearly equal number of Republican and Democratic votes. A small shift of a few thousand votes could turn these states red or blue.
These seven battleground states, which hold a combined total of 93 electoral votes, are Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Nevada (6), North Carolina (16), Pennsylvania (19), and Wisconsin (10). President Biden won five of these states, while Trump won two. These states are now considered key battlegrounds for the 2024 election.
An average of 12 recent polls shows Trump leading in Georgia (which was previously blue) and a tie in North Carolina (which was previously red). Michigan is another key battleground state, where many Middle Eastern voters, who have traditionally supported Democrats, are now undecided following the situation in the Middle East.
In Texas, Trump remains dominant, but the state’s demographics have shifted in recent years with more immigrants who tend to favour Democrats. Major cities in the state like Houston, Dallas, and Austin consistently lean blue, and in 2022, for the first time, two Texans of Pakistani origin were elected to the state assembly. However, there are still no members of Congress, senators, or governors of Pakistani descent.
Unofficial estimates suggest that there are currently over one million Pakistani-Americans, with more than 400,000 living in Texas alone. The Muslim population in the US exceeds three million, representing about 1.1 per cent of the total population. Pakistani-Americans have historically tended to support Republicans, but this support diminished following the Bush presidency and the wars in Afghanistan and the Gulf.
In light of the current war in the Middle East and recent political developments in Pakistan and the surrounding region, many Pakistanis have now become uncertain about their support for the Democrats.
A recent round table organized by the Forum for Dialogue and Diplomacy, a US-Pakistan think tank based in Houston – on the topic of ‘US Elections and the Pakistani-American Community’ – emphasized the power of unity and the importance of registering and actively participating in elections at all levels. The participants agreed that increasing the community’s visibility through volunteerism and charitable activities is vital, as well as supporting candidates and initiatives that can impact key social and political issues like equality and justice, which affect both the Pakistani-American and the broader Muslim communities in the US and globally.
Pakistani-Americans have reached a new level of political engagement, with the younger generation increasingly taking leadership roles in elections at all levels. Strengthening the relationship between the US and Pakistani-Americans is crucial for the benefit of South Asia and the broader Muslim world. As such, the community should actively participate in all US elections and play a proactive role in shaping the political landscape.
The writer is president of the Forum for Dialogue and Diplomacy, a former senator and former chairperson of the HEC.