Heavy rains likely to lash most parts of Pakistan from July 2

ISLAMABAD: The Met Office predicted on Monday that upper and central parts of the country are likely will see "vigorous monsoon activity" during the week, asking authorities to remain alert and take necessary measures to avoid any untoward situation.

However, there is no forecast of rain in Karachi, as the city endures scorching heat and experiences its highest night temperature since 2021 a day earlier.

"Vigorous monsoon activity [is] predicted in [the] upper and central parts during the week. Torrential rainfall in [the] upper parts of the country may cause devastating effects on daily routines," the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said in a statement.

The Met Office informed the public that strong monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal are likely to penetrate the upper parts of the country from July 3.

Under the influence of this weather system:

• Rain wind/thundershower with (few heavy to very heavy falls at times) are expected in Kashmir (Neelum valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber, Mirpur) from 2nd to 07th July with occasional gaps.
• Rain wind/thundershower with (few heavy to very heavy falls at times) are expected in Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Murree, Galliyat, Attock, Chakwal, Tala Gang, Jhelum, Mandi Bahauddin, Gujrat, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Wazirabad, Lahore, Sheikhupura, Sialkot, Narowal, Sahiwal, Jhang, Toba Tek Singh, Nankana Sahib, Chiniot, Faisalabad, Okara, Pakpattan, Kasur, Khushab, Sargodha, Bhakkar and Mianwali from 2nd to 07th July with occasional gaps.
• Rain/thundershower is expected in Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, DG Khan, Multan, Khanewal, Lodhran, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Rahimyar Khan and Layyah from 4th (night) to 7th July.
• Rain wind/thundershower with (few heavy to isolated very heavy falls) are expected in Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Malakand, Bajaur, Shangla, Battagram, Buner, Kohat, Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Peshawar, Mardan, Charsadda, Hangu, Kurram, Waziristan, Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan from 03rd to 07th July with occasional gaps.
• Mainly hot and humid weather is expected in most districts of the province. Rain wind/thundershower is expected in eastern parts of Balochistan (Khuzdar, Kalat, Zhob, Barkhan, Jaffarabad and Naseerabad) from 3rd to 7th July.
• Mainly hot and very humid weather is expected in most districts of the province. Rain, wind/thundershower is expected in Mithi, Umarkot, Mirpur Khas, Sukkur and Larkana from 4th to 7th July with occasional gaps.
• Mainly partly cloudy to cloudy weather conditions at times are expected in Gilgit-Baltistan. However, rainfall activity is also expected in Gilgit-Baltistan (Diamir, Astore, Skardu, Gilgit, Ghanche, Shigar) during the week.

Moreover, torrential rains are likely to cause flash floods in local nullahs and streams of Islamabad, Rawalpindi and other cities. Water flows in the eastern rivers are likely to increase during the vigorous activity of monsoon. Additionally, landslides may also disrupt roads at the vulnerable points of hilly areas.

All concerned authorities have been advised to remain “ALERT” and take necessary measures to avoid any untoward situation.

Low to medium-level flood likely in River Sutlej

Based on predictive modelling, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) activated its National Emergencies Operation Center (NEOC) in the wake of upcoming monsoon rains.

As per a statement issued by the authority, the NEOC reported significant activity from the eastern Indian side of the country, indicating intense cloud bursts that may hit parts of Pakistan.

It stated that repeated early warnings have been shared with all provinces ahead of the predicted moderate to heavy rainfall.

The NDMA said that the upper catchments of all major rivers particularly Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab will be affected by heavy to moderate showers starting from July 2, 2024.

The authority also issued an alert regarding lightning during rain spells, likely in various cities of south and central Punjab and Islamabad during July 5-7.

The said weather conditions lead to rapid rises in water levels, flash flooding events, and urban flooding in metropolitan areas.

"NDMA warns that the anticipated rainfall poses a significant risk of low to medium level flooding in River Sutlej, with water levels expected to reach low flood levels (approximately 50,000 cusecs) by July 5 and high flood levels (approximately 120,000 cusecs) by July 10, 2024," the statement read.

NDMA is working closely with federal and provincial departments to ensure preparedness and response to this potential emergency.

It also advised to remain vigilant and follow instructions from local authorities and stay informed about the weather and flood situation through its disaster alert mobile app.

Meanwhile, travellers were advised to avoid unnecessary travel in case of heavy rainfalls and likely flooding situations.