ISLAMABAD: Exports continued their upward trajectory in November, rising 7.66 percent year-on-year to $2.57 billion, marking the third consecutive month of positive growth, official data showed on Friday.
The November export figure represents a 4.4 percent decrease from October 2023's $2.69 billion but a significant improvement over the consistent declines witnessed since October 2022. This positive trend started in September with a 1.15 percent increase, followed by a 13.55 percent jump in October.
Imports, in contrast, decreased to $4.46 billion in November 2023, reflecting an 8.4 percent decline from the previous month's $4.864 billion and a 13.5 percent drop from a year ago when imports stood at Rs5.15 billion, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data showed.
The trade deficit notably narrowed by 31.7 percent to $1.89 billion in November 2023 from $2.765 billion in November 2022. October 2023 recorded a deficit of $2.17 billion.
From July to November 2023, exports totaled $12.17 billion, marking a 1.93 percent increase over the same period in the last fiscal year. In contrast, imports during July-November 2023/24 fell by 17.3 percent to $21.55 billion compared to the same period in the previous fiscal year.
Consequently, the trade deficit shrank by 33.6 percent to $9.378 billion in the initial five months of FY24 from $14.12 billion in the corresponding period of FY23.
A rough estimate based on the last five months' exports suggests the possibility of reaching nearly $29 billion in exports by the end of the fiscal year. Imports are anticipated to be around $52 billion.
In FY23, Pakistan's trade deficit decreased by 43 percent to $27.55 billion from $48.35 billion in FY22. Total exports dipped by 12.7 percent to $27.7 billion, while imports contracted by 31 percent to $55.3 billion.
Before this positive trajectory, monthly exports had consistently declined for a year, according to data from the statistics bureau released on Friday. In November 2023, exports reached $2.57 billion, up from $2.389 billion in the same month last year. However, this represented a 4.4 percent decrease from October 2023's exports of $2.69 billion.
Year-on-year, exports witnessed a 1.15 percent increase in September, 13.55 percent in October, and now 7.66 percent in November. Notably, exports have experienced continuous declines since October 2022, contracting in each subsequent month.
In October 2022, it contracted by 3.25 percent, then in November 17.6 percent, December 16.3 percent, January 14.15 percent, February 22.7 percent, March 14.6 percent, April 26.2 percent, May 16.2 percent, June 19.1 percent, July 8.09 percent, and August 4.7 percent.
Trade in Services
The data reveals that the trade deficit in services surged by 116.7 percent to $847 million in July-October 2023-24 from $391 million in the same period of 2022-23.
From July to October 2023-24, Pakistan's spending on services procured from abroad totaled $3.26 billion, while its service offerings amounted to $2.416 billion. In comparison, the corresponding period last year saw service exports at $2.34 billion and imports at $2.73 billion. Over these four months, exports increased by 3.3 percent, and imports rose by 19.6 percent.
In October 2023, services exports reached $656 million, while imports stood at $828 million, resulting in a deficit of $172 million. September 2023 recorded exports at $624 million, imports at $827 million, and a deficit of $203 million.
For the month under review, services exports grew by 5.1 percent, while imports increased by only 0.11 percent compared to the previous month.
When comparing October 2023's services trade performance to the same month of the previous year, exports were up by 5.6 percent, and imports increased by 18.1 percent. In October 2022, services exports were $621 million, and imports were $701 million.