MQM’s last chance

History may judge the MQM as a party which ruled urban Sindh for almost three decades both with mass following and muscle power which also resulted in its fall.

They party which despite winning 2013 elections, today, is not sure of even winning 50 percent of the seats it won in the last elections. It is surely MQM’s last chance. The ‘writing is on the wall’, if the MQM (Pakistan) leaders can read it. The only option left depends on its unity, chances of which looked bleak at the moment.

An important decision of the Islamabad High Court which is expected today on the petition of its most prominent leader Dr Farooq Sattar will not only determine the MQM-P’s future but also of its convener as well as that of other party faction.

The MQM’s internal conflict and outside political engineering contributed to the fall of the party, which till 2013, remained country’s fourth, Sindh’s second largest and Karachi’s only representative party. The MQM’s era may be over but the conflict which gave birth to the party still remains unresolved and can take new shape if issues were not addressed in right perspective.

Politics is the game of possibilities and opportunities and the MQM missed both in its 40 years. Many of its opponents, critics and those who matter in our unstable political system see it as ‘end game’ for the MQM, while its supporters see it as the implementation of minus MQM formula.

The MQM in the last two years particularly after August 22 remained under constant pressure to ‘do more’, in a bid to restore the trust and confidence of certain quarters.

Political engineering always dominated Pakistani politics and in Sindh context whenever any anti-PPP government was supposed to be installed. But for the first time the MQM, which in the past was used against the PPP, is facing a crisis of survival and Karachi’s 21 seats are certain to be shared by more than one or two parties.

Karachi operation had given positive results and almost broke the backbone of the alleged militant wing of the MQM, and credit goes to operational authorities for cleaning up Karachi from all kinds of militancy.

Thus, there was no need for interference in political matters in the aftermath of operational results, but, political engineering once again damaged the natural political discourse and question being raised over the political motives.

What happened in Balochistan and now in Karachi, in the Senate elections and now before next elections may damage the good work been done to separate militancy from politics.

The MQM’s political decline started after 2013 elections and further weakened after August 22. So what happened after it does not required any outside interference but that does not happened.

People had completely rejected the MQM founder’s speech of August 22 and his alleged anti-Pakistan stance but at the same time people expect change should come through natural discourse and not through any ‘engineering’.

Today’s expected judgment of the Islamabad High Court in the case of Dr Farooq Sattar and MQM (PIB), will not only determine the future of his own faction but also of his own political future. It will decide as which group will contest the elections from the MQM’s traditional election symbol ‘kite’ and be recognised as the MQM.

Dr Farooq Sattar is expected to make an important announcement regarding his political fate after the court verdict and will quit politics, in case it goes against him. If the court accepted his plea and restore him as convener, he will make an offer to the MQM (Bahadurabad).

The unity among the MQM factions still looked difficult particularly in the presence of serious differences between Dr Sattar and Aamir Khan, which had sharpened after November 2017 and finally let to party’s humiliating defeat in the Senate elections when the MQM, settled with only one seat that of Faroogh Naseem.

Today’s expected decision is also important for the MQM rival particularly Pak Sarzameen Party, PSP as most MQM dissidents including MNAs and MPAs may join Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani as they see them as alternate to the MQM.

PSP too knows the dynamic of Mohajir politics particularly Anis Qaimkhani.

So they did not completely distance themselves from Mohajir politics but believe they have only changed the MQM brand as it is no more a saleable property.

They still defend some MQM hardliners like Hammad Siddiqui and called Baldia factor fire which killed over 250 labourers as accident. They also called for one-time amnesty for all alleged MQM militants and demand recovery of the MQM’s missing persons.

One of the reasons was the nature of Mohajir politics in cities like Hyderabad, Mirpurkhas, Sukkur and Nawabshah, where voters perhaps still await the outcome of the MQM infighting. If it continues they may look towards the PSP or any other alternate, but, if they go in polls as united MQM, they still stand a good chance in Hyderabad, but, find it difficult in Mirpurkhas.

The MQM-P could not recover after Aug 22, and while it developed its internal conflict, it is also a fact that the party faced unprecedented pressure from outside quarters as well.

‘Kite flying’ is an old term but in the present political storm it seems as the MQM factions are really finding hard to fly the ‘kite’. It has practically been stopped flying after Aug 22 with a virtual ban on the MQM-London and its founder.

So, even when the MQM-P and Dr Farooq Sattar and his team moved two resolutions in the National Assembly and Sindh Assembly against the MQM founder and demanded his trial under Article VI, without realising that this Article also dealt with abrogation of the Constitution, but even that did not satisfy the ‘relevant quarters’.

Convener Dr Farooq Sattar and senior deputy convener Aamir Khan had serious distrust on each other since Aug 22. Aamir has his own story of leaving and return to the MQM, but, it is a fact that he had never been accepted by many even at the time of united MQM under its founder. These include Anis Qaimkhani, Mustafa Kamal, Dr Farooq Sattar and others.

So, when Farooq Sattar and Aamir Khan got the party after Aug 22, they could not resolve their old differences and remove distrust. This led to the division in the Rabita Committee, which later Sattar felt was dominated by Aamir’s men.

Similarly, when Kamran Tessori’s first wanted to join the MQM-P in 2013, it was opposed by many party leaders including Aamir Khan, Faisal Sabzwari, Babar Ghouri and others.

The PSP is the outcome of the political blunders of united MQM. Even leaders like Dr Farooq Sattar and some others admitted that Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani left the party with genuine reasons. So they have the right to form their own parties and they launched the PSP in 2016.

Had political engineering not taken place, the PSP and MQM, could have reunited in natural course despite personal problems of few leaders. It is the outside and unnecessary pressure on both which aggravated the situation. The MQM may be replaced by PPP, PSP, PTI or MMA, but, it will certainly not leave a positive impact on national politics in general and Sindh politics in particular. Let the change come by natural discourse not through ‘engineering’. The MQM had damaged itself a lot in 38 years, need no further damage.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO