Chattering classes still not getting it

Islamabad diary
Every morning when it is still dark and the streets are empty, thousands of people line up before the passport office in Kabul. Some time ago the office dealt with a thousand applicants a day. That figure has shot up to around 5,000 these days…as more and more Afghans, afraid of the future and seeing the Taliban resurgent, are getting desperate to leave, in search not so much of greener pastures as simple safety.
Since that fateful day when Afghan communists, a confused lot, backed by army units overthrew Sardar Daud and seized power, Afghanistan has seen many migrations. This is the latest…the last frenzied attempt to get out before the waters rise and the gates are slammed shut.
Libya and Iraq were two countries where Pakistanis, not too long ago, used to go to seek work. Libya-returned and Iraq-returned were status symbols in our villages. Today those countries still exist on the map but gone is their wealth, gone their stability. Iraqis in their millions are either internal or external refugees.
Khayyam’s words come to mind:
They say the Lion and the Lizard keep
The Courts where Jamshyd gloried and drank deep:
And Bahram, that great Hunter…the Wild Ass
Stamps o’er his Head but cannot break his sleep.
What we are seeing has happened in no fable. The destruction of these countries has happened before our eyes. And the western powers which triggered all this turmoil have just walked away, even as we continue to receive lectures from them on civilisation and its virtues. The same western powers, upholders of civilisation, would give anything to apply the same formula to Syria…to do a Qaddafi on Bashar al-Assad.
Indeed, if the Americans had their way, Assad would have met Qaddafi’s fate long ago. But he’s shown grit and, more importantly, Vladimir Putin, Hezbollah and Iran have stood by him. Russia is beefing up its military presence in Syria by sending more attack planes and other materiel.
Regime

change begins with controlling the skies, creating a no-fly zone, which is what was done with Qaddafi…which was earlier done with Saddam Hussein. They have wanted to do the same with Assad, using bombing against the Islamic State as a pretext to impose a no-fly zone over Syria. But the Russians are an inhibiting factor.
Putin has played a masterly hand in Ukraine – not that the west will ever admit it – and is playing a strong hand in Syria. He is now proposing a broad front against the Islamic State which should include everyone: the US, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. This makes sense but the Americans don’t like it because how can they work with Iran and Hezbollah, which is what Putin’s proposal implies? The Saudis can’t swallow it because their dislike of Assad exceeds their fear of Daesh. Erdogan has his own problems – with the Kurds and with Assad. These contradictions play into the hands of the Islamic State.
In Pakistan we forget that we were headed in much the same direction – that is, towards greater disorder – as recently as last year. The sense of drift was palpable. So was the element of fear. The TTP was waging open war on Pakistan and the best the government and the political parties could think of were laughable peace overtures. Cynics called Pakistan a failed state. The more charitable called it dysfunctional. Meanwhile, the great tribunes of the people pushed self-serving agendas, questionable development projects and commercial deals. The extremist threat to the country just did not figure on their radars.
All this has changed in a short span of time. From Fata to Karachi there’s been a sharp turnaround because of bold and decisive military action. The war is not over. Problems remain and the going will be tough. But the mere fact that people are seeing leadership and resolve has changed the national mood. This no longer looks like a despondent or a defeated nation.
Putin may be a hated figure in the west but he is popular at home. Why? Because he’s seen as the man who has reversed the slide in his country’s fortunes…someone who has restored Russian pride and self-respect. He’s not popular throughout. The liberati and sections of the upper classes don’t like him, seeing him as an authoritarian figure.
We are seeing much the same phenomenon here – Gen Raheel becoming wildly popular because of the leadership he has shown even as sections of the liberati give vent to ‘democratic’ scruples. An ill-timed debate has arisen over Gen Raheel’s tenure, former president Pervez Musharraf in an interview saying he should be given an extension.
Coming from Musharraf – who should know something about extensions, having given several to himself – this is a poisoned gift. A clear path to heaven coming from him will be looked upon with suspicion, such being the fruits of his time at the helm. Everything thus in its own time. The army did not consult the liberati before venturing into Waziristan and Karachi. It is unlikely to consult outside eminences when other decisions are to be taken.
My hunch, call it gut feeling, is that such decisions will be taken before the next year is out. Too much has happened. Just as in Karachi there can be no return to the pre-operation situation, how many takers are there likely to be for a return to Pakistan’s Taliban-dominated past?
We should keep things in perspective. Go back to the all-parties’ conference of Sep 2013 when the collective wisdom of the Islamic Republic, in effect, lay prostrate before the Taliban. And in Karachi a few months back the fiercest democrats could not take the name of the MQM openly – such was the terror its name inspired.
Pakistan can do without Bonapartism – the seizure of power by a ‘strongman’, tin-plated or otherwise. But it can also do without the shenanigans of a political class empty of ideas except that idea which has become a passion: obtaining not just any wealth but obscene amounts of wealth…and the means be damned. There’s a name for such a thing and it is not democracy. Plutocracy – rule of the rich and by the rich – is a more apt description.
As for those well-meaning souls who parrot the mantra that institutions are more important than personalities, they could do with a closer examination of the society and milieu in which they live. The British built institutions; we have shown greater skill in destroying them. Throughout our history it is the cult of the strongman which has prevailed. Or the cult of the lone ranger: the Abdus Sattar Edhi, the Prof Adibul Hasan Rizvi, etc. There was always the Punjab Food Authority but one Ayesha Mumtaz comes and makes a difference.
We had this same army, same uniform, same guns, same tanks, same everything. But in Musharraf’s time so low had the army’s stock fallen that officers and men were told not to go out in uniform – and this not in the tribal areas but cities of Punjab, home of the army.
Our problem then is to find a halfway house between Bonapartism and plutocracy. If we hit upon the right balance the resulting outcome will better deserve the title of democracy than the farce we have at present…and which has given us little better than breathtaking mediocrity and unbelievable plunder.
As we go about fixing this problem let us keep in mind the examples of Iraq and Syria, and Afghanistan next door. Our immediate world is in turmoil and we ignore this at our peril.
Email: bhagwal63@gmail.com