The long coming of a death

Mullah Omar’s death has created more controversies than his life itself. His death has caused ripples in the rank and file of the Taliban, questioned its unity, disrupted the process of reconciliation which carries ramifications for the security of the region and above all cast a pall over bilateral relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
While alive he had nominated Mullah Abdul Ghani commonly known as Mullah Bradar and Mullah Akhtar Mansour as his two deputies in that order of seniority. Mullah Bradar who was in prison was released on the request of then president Karzai who wanted to commence talks with the Taliban through him. But adopting an independent stance earned him the wrath of the powers that be, resulting in him being taken into protective custody and being incarcerated – till today.
Mullah Brader’s prolonged imprisonment created space for Mullah Akhtar Mansour, being second in the chain of command, to start running the show; and after two years when Mullah Omar’s death was made public by Kabul he stepped into his (Mullah Omar) shoes claiming to have been so nominated by the council of religious leaders (shura) empowered to take such decisions. However Mullah Omar’s close associates as well as his son and brother refused to accept his nomination unless it is endorsed in an open session of the shura as was done for Mullah Omar when he was appointed amirul momeneen of the Taliban movement.
Why was Mullah Omar’s death kept secret for so long? Why was it leaked to the press just when the process of reconciliation had begun and the second round of talks was to take place in Murree only a day later? Why was it leaked from Kabul, of all places, and who benefits from this revelation? These are all important questions that have given rise to some conjunctures.
The Taliban had kept the death a secret to avoid any fight for succession and a rift between commanders as no one else had the stature to fill the vacuum and keep the momentum going under one banner. They wanted to benefit from it to the maximum – both in the fight with Kabul as well as in the negotiations with it.
The Kabul government leaked the news to the press a day before the meeting with the Taliban to sow seeds of disunity among them in order to weaken their bargaining position. This is what did happen and the Taliban were forced to cancel the second round for fear of a split in their ranks becoming evident.
Another reason for the leak could be the fear in the minds of Afghans in positions of influence but opposed to the reconciliation process and to friendship with Pakistan that they may lose their positions in case the dialogue succeeded and the Taliban joined the government. This machination could have had the blessings of likeminded people from other countries serving in different capacities in Afghanistan.
One strong possibility is that powerful hardliners who think the Taliban have been weakened, and are pushing for a military solution rather than one through negotiations, had deliberately leaked news of the death to sabotage the talks for which Pakistan was getting the credit. These hardliners include two most powerful warlords, Atta Mohammad Nur, the Tajik governor of Balkh who feels defeating the Taliban now is a very real possibility, and Abdur Rashid Dostum, the first vice-president who shares this sentiment. It is widely believed that another hardliner, Rehmatullah Nabil the head of the NDS, who would have been aware of Mullah Omar’s death, arranged for the news to be leaked. Incidentally, all three of them hold strong anti-Pakistan views and blame our premier agency as the cause of the violence in their country.
Why President Ashraf Ghani has become a party to all this is a bit tricky to understand as he was anxious for the dialogue process to take off. But from the sequence of events in the presidential palace that day one can make out that he was forced to play out a certain role by people in his own government known for their rivalry with the Taliban from the Afghan civil war days in the early 1990s. They leaked news of Mullah Omar’s death in a statement on behalf of the president without taking him into confidence leaving him with no choice but to follow suit. His written statement which he read to the media was a fait accompli – in other words, to be ahead of his chief executive officer in accusing Pakistan for what happened in Kabul a few days earlier.
Under these circumstances Pakistan would be happy if Mullah Akhtar Mansour mustered enough support to be strong enough to begin the process of reconciliation afresh which, in turn, will lend credence to Islamabad for contributing positively to the resolution of the problem in Afghanistan rather than being accused otherwise. The interests of both Afghanistan and Pakistan will be best served if there is peace in the two countries. We have to guard against intrigues and machinations.
A different problem of a bigger magnitude is also rearing its ugly head and has already made its presence felt in the Nangarhar province of Afghanistan. It could seriously jeopardise the security situation of both countries if we fail to start making effective arrangements now to tackle it. We should not disregard the possibility that some powers in the west, accused of creating this menace which has already gained a foothold in three countries in the Middle East, could take advantage to further their own agenda, like redrawing boundaries or taking over our nuclear assets and so on. The cobweb that has been woven is slowly being extended in our direction. The initial footprints have already been tracked by our security agencies in some places in the country.
Our leaders need to handle this difficult situation carefully by refusing space to the enemy to disrupt the progress that has so painfully been made in setting relations on the right path. President Ashraf Ghani’s outburst on Pakistan was obviously a reaction to the recent spate of bombings in Kabul. It should not distract us from improving relations. This is a temporary phase and surely he will realise that bashing Pakistan for everything bad that happens in Afghanistan is not the right way to go about it.
President Ghani sending a delegation to Islamabad for exchange of views on the security situation was a very wise step. Both sides have most probably exchanged written concerns. The ball is now in Afghanistan’s court. One can only hope that Kabul will respond positively. Meanwhile the statement issued by the Foreign Office in Islamabad described the meeting as positive with the two sides agreeing to maintain close contact for promotion of bilateral cooperation and addressing all issues of common concern to evolve a strategic consensus in responding to the security challenges of the region.
That Afghanistan and Pakistan have no choice but to maintain good relations is the broader consensus among the people of the two countries. Neither can afford a situation otherwise. They have to guard against the dangers looming large on the horizon. They can defuse the situation – but only through friendship.
The writer is a former ambassador. Email: waziruk@hotmail.com