The Doval doctrine

The Murree peace process has re-enforced Pakistan’s meditative role in bringing peace and harmony back to Afghanistan. Pakistan has been able to rope in global powers like China and the US into the new arrangement, paving the way for inclusive peace in Afghanistan.
Pakistan-Afghanistan-China Cooperation is the present and future of West Asia. I have coined the term to make it simple, Pakistan Afghanistan China Collaboration (PACH).This new and emerging paradigm shift in West and Central Asia has a direct bearing on South Asia and beyond.
Although the Murree peace process hit some snags recently, due to news of Mullah Omar’s death, it can be assumed with positivity that the Afghan peace process will be resumed shortly after the Taliban leadership comes back to the negotiating table.
The Indian establishment and media had been feeling uneasy about the Afghan peace process due to a number of reasons – some real, some imaginary. There is repetitive talk of ‘three red lines’, being crossed by the Murree peace process. The Indian establishment and media equated it with India being left in the cold. The Hindu newspaper describes it as India being frozen out of the talks and recalls how former Afghan president Hamid Karzai had listed three red lines for peace; acceptance of the Afghan constitution, peace or ceasefire as a precondition for talks, and an Afghan owned and Afghan-led process, which had been endorsed by the UPA government in New Delhi.
The Hindu concludes the frustrated mindset of South Block by stating that, “we will convey our unease and concerns, but quietly, and only to those willing to listen” – not mentioning who that willing audience is. As per South Block, these talks are taking place without taking care of any of these red lines.
India must realise that Karzai played his innings and left a story of nepotism and corruption in Afghanistan. He was labelled as a most corrupt leader who made billions.
Modi’s security advisor Ajit Kumar Doval has been projected as the best brain India can offer in the strategic field of security and statecraft. He is a known hawk with a track record of a field spy (within Pakistan) and now a spy master. Intelligence sharing between Pakistan and Afghanistan has produced good results and this factor is not fitting in well with the Doval doctrine (isolating Pakistan at all cost). The Afghanistan of 2015 is a new Afghanistan and Ashraf Ghani represents the Afghan mandate. Does Karzai fit into the current Afghan polity? Yes, Karzai is a dead horse who can comfort himself in his palace in Kabul, built with illegal money. His investment with India for jointly targeting Pakistan made him a darling of the Indian establishment.
Karzai ran a war economy based on handouts from the US, UK and even India. In an article titled, ‘MI6 ghost money sent to Hamid Karzai amid massive Afghan corruption’ published in the Russian TV (RT) on May 6, 2013 a Tory MP in the British parliament was quoted as saying that: ‘there is plenty of evidence that Karzai and his clique do not have interest in a peace settlement but instead have an interest in continuing the conflict.’ With these credentials Karzai or his clique were the best option for the Indian establishment – an unstable Afghanistan meant an unstable Pakistan. Indian nostalgia on Hamid Karzai is based on Chankia’s Mandala theory, where the enemy of my enemy is my strategic asset. A Pakistan-friendly Afghanistan does not augur well for the Doval doctrine.
The global ‘war on terror’ unleashed by Uncle Sam in West Asia and Middle East allowed outsiders like India to play their game in Afghanistan and try and destabilise Pakistan. For this, India played all the kinetic and non-kinetic cards to convince the Afghan public that Pakistan was enemy number one. In the kinetic domain, it was the arming, training and facilitating of militants and dissident caders in Fata ,KP and Balochistan, whereas the non-kinetic part was played by Indian investment in Afghanistan in the name of development and progress. Some reports suggest that Indian investment in Afghanistan was more than 10 billion dollars in the last decade. This investment also included a perception management mechanism lead by Indian cinema to project Indian culture and play down Pakistan’s positive contribution within Afghanistan.
Modi’s rise to power and his selection of Ajit K Doval as his security advisor should have been understood by Pakistan at the beginning of Modi’s term. However, in exuberance of goodwill, Pakistan could not fathom the policy contours of the Doval doctrine. When it comes to Pakistan the Doval doctrine is very clear.
Ajit Kumar Doval has proposed a no-holds-barred doctrine in dealing with Pakistan. The Indian establishment can foresee that Pakistan and Afghanistan are swiftly moving ahead with the peace process and the Taliban have also agreed to join the process in an Afghan-led arrangement. Although Pakistan has been able to call the Indian bluff in Afghanistan, India can overturn the gains made by PACH through fomenting chaos in Afghanistan.
The Doval doctrine is conceptualised by the following contours:
• Create a wedge between the Afghan and Pakistani public by supporting terrorist activities within Afghanistan. Keep blaming Pakistan for all problems that Afghanistan faces today.
• Support the Isis rise in Afghanistan and project it as the better option for jehadis. Support breakaway factions of Taliban to join Isis. Make sustained efforts so that Isis is fully entrenched in Afghanistan and replaces the Taliban.
• Make efforts to divide strategic decision-makers by using RAW’s NDS affiliates and even look for an option of regime change through soft or hard coup (whatever works) against President Ashraf Ghani.
• If everything fails, support the division of Afghanistan into three states, Tajik-Hazara, Uzbek and Pakhtun.
As the Durand Line cools down with the CPEC on the horizon and Pakistan becomes a conduit of energy and commerce for Central and West Asia, strategic space for India to manoeuvre will be seriously curtailed and restricted. India can also foresee that its investment in Afghanistan may go down the drain, which is why the Doval doctrine starts to make sense.
It is only through understanding the contours of the Doval doctrine and an adroit counter-manoeuvre that Pakistan can get out of the morass being created by India within Afghanistan.
The writer is a defence analyst based at Lahore. Email: waqarkauravi@gmail.com