Endgame…democracy’s swansong once more

Kis da dosh si kis da nahi si/Aey galaan hun karan diyan nahi
Who was to blame, who was not to blame, these arguments no longer matter.
Veley lag gaey tauba valey
Jo hoya ey hona ee si
The time for repentance is past. What has happened was bound to happen.
Te hona rokyan rukdi nahi
Gal phir eivan mukdi nahi
And what is to happen does not stop even if you try to stop it; it does not end just like that.
Could anyone have said it better or seen more clearly than the great Munir Niazi? A better summation of the present situation would be hard to find.
This is no longer about analysis, of what the ISPR has said, what the generals may be planning, what the agitators are up to, what their demands are, what that ill-used document called the constitution says and what it does not . All these considerations were of some relevance at some point in this developing crisis. They are no longer relevant now, because hurtling circumstances have left them far behind, outstripping their usefulness.
The agitating knights, the Reverend Qadri and impetuous Imran, are mounted on steeds they can no longer control.
Rau mein hai raksh-e-umr, kahan dekhiye thamey
Nae haath baag par hai, na paa hai rakaab mein
(The stallion of my life is in a race, let’s see where it stops
Neither are my hands on the reins, nor my feet in the stirrup)
They may not even be interested in pulling the reins for their avowed aim is not compromise but the pulling down of the entire edifice on which sits a helpless Nawaz Sharif, buffeted by events and no longer able to influence them.
Both the besiegers and the besieged are going through the motions of a dialogue even as they realise – unless they are completely out of touch with reality – that what they are engaged in is a pantomime leading to no destination.
In 1977 there was at least some meeting point between Bhutto and his opponents. They had even arrived at the outlines of an agreement which was

scuttled by Gen Zia’s intervention. Here there is no meeting point at all, the two sides not just far apart but talking in different tongues.
Imran wants Nawaz Sharif to step down. Nothing less will satisfy him. The Reverend goes beyond this, calling for the reconstruction of the entire temple. What Nawaz Sharif is ready to concede no one knows…which means that even the preliminaries are all up in the air. Meanwhile the protesting columns are encamped in Parliament Square and any semblance of government in Islamabad has all but disappeared.
If the protesters have not marched on Prime Minister’s House as Imran Khan had threatened, it is only because of the army. Indeed, the army’s shadow looms over this entire scene. Call this a deadlock or a stalemate…it can’t last forever. Short of falling on his sword what can the prime minister offer to appease the fires of the raging cleric and the former cricketing captain? Alas, not much.
Dissolving the National Assembly is a recipe for self-immolation. The PML-N is a party of power not ideology. After the Musharraf coup it faced a meltdown. In the 2002 elections it couldn’t find enough candidates for every parliamentary seat. The moment Nawaz Sharif slips the danger of desertions becomes real again. So what is there to offer Qadri and Imran?
The scope for a political settlement in the present situation is thus virtually non-existent. The gulf between the two sides is unbridgeable. However, neither side can afford to look intransigent and unreasonable because no one would like to carry the blame for failure. The search for a settlement will therefore continue and both sides will keep playing to the gallery until the very end – until it becomes obvious to all and sundry that their differences are irreconcilable.
Then will grow louder the sound of muffled drums. This is not coup-mongering. Coups are not brought about by newspaper columns. This is to read the writing on the wall. We haven’t arrived at this point just like that. There is a train of events, starting from last year, which has brought us here. Qadri and Imran entered the fray much later. The ground for disruption and combat was laid by a series of happenings involving the souring of relations between Nawaz Sharif and the army command.
Qadri and Imran have merely exploited this terrain; they haven’t created it. And Nawaz Sharif was unable to read the situation, or realise its gravity. When he did it was too late, the dogs of war already unleashed.
Providence and fate weighed in too. How did the Model Town massacre, for it was nothing less, happen? Who permitted it, who gave the word of command? When the bodies of the dead lay cold a threshold was crossed. This was on the 17th of June and Nawaz Sharif and his inner coterie far from trying to address this situation responded to it by jumla-bazi and point-scoring.
When asked about Qadri I remember Shahbaz Sharif saying that there were lakhs of Qadris in the country and he was not aware of any particular Qadri. The same Qadri is now at the gates of the Prime Minister’s House and the PM has to duck through the Presidency to arrive at the National Assembly.
And I remember Rana Sanaullah saying that in any event no-go areas – this a reference to the barriers in front of Allama Tahirul Qadri’s house in Model Town – could not be permitted anywhere in Punjab. After 14 people including two women were dead and scores lying injured in hospital as a result of bullet fire this was the response. Such callousness and arrogance have paved the way for Pakistan’s version of Tahrir Square.
It is two months since the Model Town massacre and still an FIR has not been registered, not even after a court order. What does this say about the chances of a settlement?
Let us also not discount problems of personal chemistry. Driven against a wall Nawaz Sharif, not a monument to flexibility at the best of times, will not be inclined to bestow any favours on Qadri and Imran, the instruments of his present humiliation. My guess is he would rather be Samson and push the pillars of the temple to bring it crashing down on everyone’s head…much rather that than playing into the hands of his two tormentors.
As for the tormentors, they haven’t marched their columns to Islamabad in this heat and humidity to settle for crumbs from Nawaz Sharif’s table. Painting Nawaz Sharif into a corner and shaving off his locks – what Delilah did to Samson – and making him powerless, is for them a heaven-sent opportunity which they know is not likely to recur soon again. If they do not press home their advantage now they may fear losing everything.
As I switch on the TV I see Aftab Sherpao addressing the National Assembly – resounding platitudes about democracy, but little word about how to meet the demands of the protesters. Politicians cannot be stopped from making their speeches. The reality, however, is different. On Wednesday MNAs had to use the presidential back door route to leave the National Assembly. Qadri and Imran command the space outside. And the army is recommending the virtue of wisdom and sagacity to resolve this crisis.
History is repeating itself. Only the failure of the talks is awaited before the clock starts ticking faster. We will then have time enough to mourn lost opportunities.
The last time democracy was quarantined Aftab Sherpao became interior minister. An army of democrats found berths for themselves in the Musharraf order. In the end, sadly, reality always trumps the siren songs of idealism.
Email: winlust@yahoo.com