Indo-Pak standoff: Pakistan, Imran gainer, India, Modi losers

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Imran Khan and Pakistan have turned out to be gainers while his Indian counterpart Narendra Modi and India have proved to be losers in the limited armed conflict between the two neighbours.

It was universally argued among the knowledgeable circles of New Delhi and Islamabad that Modi would certainly embark upon a misadventure against Pakistan during his campaign for the upcoming Indian general elections in a bid to raise his prospects for triumph.

However, his strike against Pakistan has boomeranged, and he has sustained political losses instead of any benefits. His rivals amply hammered this point after the downing of an Indian jet and the capture of its pilot by Pakistan. One of his party politician said that his Bharatia Janata Party (BJP) would pocket at least 22 additional seats because of this attack. But one of his adversaries taunted him by asking how many dead bodies Modi wants to bag 300 seats in the Lok Sabha in the next polls. This kind of denunciation is raging in India.

In addition, the Indian polity is more polarised in the wake of the intrusion. Besides, India and Modi have exposed themselves before the world as warmongers, who struck their neighbour without any credible proof and evidence to back the reason on which they based their aggression. Also, India’s self-acclaimed military superiority over Pakistan stood dented.

Conversely, not only Imran Khan but also Pakistan substantially gained at home and in the global circuit as well. In the first instance, Pakistanis were dejected because of the intrusion of the Indian planes on the Line of Control (LoC), but became cheerful and thrilled after the Indian fighter was brought down and its pilot seized as they felt that they have won the first round of the conflict by adequately responding to India.

Pakistani politicians, who hardly agree on anything due to the deep animosity on internal issues, spoke with one voice amidst the Indo-Pak armed clash. Although Pakistanis were demoralised when the Indian fighters had intruded the LoC, the political lot did not raise a finger at the government, and instead kept extending a helping hand to it. And when the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) shot down the Indian aircraft, they were jubilant and unanimously hailed the armed forces and the real hero, pilot Hassan Siddiqui.

Imran Khan and Pakistan presented themselves before the world as peace mongers, who made it clear with their words and actions that they have the sincere desire to cool down the temperature and have no urge to aggravate the armed hostilities. Even at the height of the fracas on the day of the downing of the Indian plane, the prime minister offered the olive branch to resolve the issues through dialogue.

The release of arrested Indian Air Force pilot Abhinandan was a concrete step Imran Khan took to send a powerful message to New Delhi that Islamabad has no plan to continue or hype antagonism. His hectic efforts to hold a telehphonic conversation with Modi were also meant to achieve the same objective. There is nothing positive that has so far come out from Modi in response to these credible and solid moves. While Abhinandan’s release was hailed by some Pakistanis, others described it as a hasty step and argued that the pilot should have been handed over to India after a few days.

A strong feeling still prevails among several Pakistanis that given the king of belligerence and hatred Modi has against Pakistan and considering the crucial nature of the upcoming Indian elections, Modi will resort to some sort of adventure so that he could beef up his chances for poll victory. The increased firing by Indian troops at the LoC, resulting in civilian casualties, is part of this strategy and to come out of the immense embarrassment Modi has suffered.

In Pakistan’s parliamentary polls, the “India card” has never been played by the contesting parties barring one exception when some political entities chanted the slogan of “Modi ka yaar” against the then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in the last polls in Azad Kashmir. But the mantra brought no electoral dividends at all for such elements and rather the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had a landslide victory, never secured by it before.

A decisive factor that quickly helped downgrade the Indo-Pak confrontation, which had the potential of turning into a full-fledged war, was the United States for the mere fact that Washington wants to come out of the Afghan imbroglio without loss of more time. The US is beholden to Pakistan for its meaningful assistance in the ongoing peace talks with the Taliban. Washington is poised to be focused on these talks and did not want to see this opportunity fritter away because of Indo-Pak fight. More than once, top American officials have expressed their gratitude to Islamabad for the help being extended by Pakistan in the peace process, which has entered a crucial phase.

Modi has to introduce some other stunt to win the elections as his first adventure against Pakistan has misfired to bring any benefits. Besides, the Kashmir dispute has been internationalised. This is what acclaimed Indian intellectual Arundhati Roy has written: By goading Pakistan into a counter-strike, and so making India and Pakistan the only two nuclear powers in history to have bombed each other, Modi has internationalised the Kashmir dispute. He has demonstrated to the world that Kashmir is potentially the most dangerous place on earth, the flash-point for nuclear war. Every person, country, and organisation that worries about the prospect of nuclear war has the right to intervene and do everything in its power to prevent it.

He also echoed the widespread view prevailing among Indian writers that strike against Pakistan was intended to gain in the elections as she wrote that on the whole, it has to be said, this absurd waltz looks and smells more “pre-election” than “pre-emptive.

With the election fever gripping India or even without it, it is impossible for Modi, who is a divisive figure, to have all the political parties on board against any future adventure against Pakistan. But for Imran Khan it is a golden opportunity to heal the wounds and break bread with his political rivals. He did praise the opposition parties in his parliamentary speech for showing solidarity against India, but he did not go any step further and continued his old unhelpful trajectory when none of his opponents is raising accusing fingers at him for repeatedly voicing his keenness for peace with India. There is a serious need for change of mind sooner than later.