Can PTI pose a serious threat to MQM?

1987 was the turning point in Karachi’s politics when a team of younger “Muhajirs” turned the tables on the powerful Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) in the local bodies’ elections.
I still remember celebrations at Azizabad — the home constituency of Altaf Hussain — who emerged as the leader of these youths. At that time the party was called the Muhajir Qaumi Movement (MQM).
As a journalist covering the event, I saw thousands of young and old Muhajirs gathered outside the house of veteran leader late Akhtar Rizvi in Azizabad. He was elected as councilor and lived near Nine-Zero — the residence of Altaf Hussain.
“It’s beginning of a new era for Muhajir-Sindhi unity,” he told me.
The area falls in NA-246 where a new challenger to the MQM — the PTI — has generated enough political heat by throwing its hat in the local bodies’ election ring. Is this just a by-election or something more for Karachi? Can this be a launching pad for new political dynamics in the backdrop of new changes?
After 1987, the MQM replaced the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) and won two local bodies and seven general elections. It boycotted one in 1993 (National Assembly) and lost seven seats in 2002. But, during this period the party never lost NA-246. Now, this seat has been challenged by the PTI whose workers are using the campaign as the launching pad for the forthcoming Cantonment Board and, more importantly, local bodies elections this year.
So, the MQM will now be facing more than one challenger — the PTI and Jamaat-e-Islami. The too have developed political differences. An ally in Khyber Pakhtunkhawa, the JI believes the PTI should withdraw its candidate since in the past it pulled more votes than it and also has a better organisation. So far, both sides are not ready to surrender. So, Imran Khan, Sirajul Haq and Altaf Hussain will be addressing election rallies. All this has made this by-election a “national election.”
But, will there be any upset in

NA-246? Or the PTI may not be able to even retain its 2013 position, where its candidate got 31,00 votes. All this will be known on the polling day on April 23. But, this can also be the beginning of a new political force in Karachi — the PTI. At the same time, in the present Karachi situation, its defeat would further strengthen the MQM’s position in the city. The margin of vote would also be interesting.
After a long time, election in NA-246 has witnessed heat, which is likely to rise in the coming weeks with the arrival of Imran Khan, who will be visiting the area, particularly Jinnah Ground close to the Nine-Zero for the first time.
For MQM, it’s a serious challenge, particularly in the backdrop of the last two months’ developments and arrest of its workers, including those in suspected criminal cases, in the targeted action. So, they are taking this election quite seriously, using all experience and organizational skills. As one senior MQM leader said: “Boycott is not the option.” But, then Karachi is known for uncertainty and volatile reactions.
Imran Khan is confident that the outcome of the recent operation against the MQM militants would go in its favor and they can cause an “upset.” The PTI in the last election pulled around 31,000 votes. This time it has pitched Imran’s closest aide, Imran Ismail, against Altaf Hussain’s trusted Kanwar Naveed. The third party in the race is the JI that has put its strong and experienced man Rashid Nasim though earlier they had put Hafiz Naeem.
Many political pundits see it as a “new battle for Karachi.” For MQM, it’s just like another election, but the PTI leadership, optimistic of making this by-election, keenly contested. Imran Khan himself will address a public meeting at the Jinnah Ground. For the first time, an anti-MQM meeting will at this place on April 9, two weeks prior to the polling.
The events of the last ten days have already generated political heat in the constituency but any violence can force the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to deploy the army or the Rangers. There are reports that the ECP may call out the Rangers three days prior to polling. The army will be on the standby while the Rangers will be posted at the polling stations.
The PTI, which had emerged as political threat to the PML-N in the Punjab and JUI and Awami National Party (ANP) in Khyber Pakhtunkhawa in 2013 elections, also gave few aftershocks to the MQM in Karachi. Even if they managed to give a fight to MQM, and improved their 2013 position by 10,000 to 20,000 votes, it would be an eye-opener for the MQM. Imran Khan, known for his aggressive politics, strongly feels that his party has the potential to challenge the MQM.
But, remember, NA-246 is Altaf Hussain’s “home constituency,” regarded as MQM’s base. Altaf started his political career as a student leader from this very constituency. Thus, it is also its ideological constituency. Since the MQM’s political structure did not allow the party chief or even the chairman to contest any election or hold any government offices, Altaf Hussain and late Azeem Ahmad Tariq never contested any election.
The “rise of Muhajir politics,” also belongs to this very constituency, which also includes areas like Liaquatabad and Federal B’ Area. Thus, its predominant Urdu-speaking constituency and the only threat prior to the PTI came from Jamaat-e-Islami.
The constituency belongs to the lower middle-class and middle class. Thus, the leadership of all the parties as well as the candidates who had contested from this area also belongs to the same class.
The MQM twice faced problems in this constituency. The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an alliance of religious parties led by Jamaat-e-Islami, came close to cause an upset in NA-246 in 2002, reducing the MQM vote bank to 50 per cent. But, in 2008, the MQM fought back and recovered from the last shock. In 2013, though the MQM swept the polls, its leadership was surprised over the amount of votes pulled by the PTI candidates in Karachi, including NA-246, where they got 31,000 votes.
It was mainly because of the number of votes that the PTI candidates in Karachi pulled despite winning one NA and three PS seats, Altaf took his Rabita Committee to task in the post-election General Body on April 19, 2013 due to which many of its leaders either quit the party or were sidelined.
So, for the first time the result of NA-246 would set the tone for new political dynamics in Karachi. If the PTI caused any upset, Karachi may see a new political alignment, but if the PTI faced humiliation and not even a close contest, it would badly damage Imran Khan’s political sagacity.
Most importantly, if the MQM retained its seat and also pulled votes close to 100,000 or even 80,000, it would give a “warning signal” to many quarters prior to the local bodies’ elections. All this has made NA-246 election the most important political development, particularly for Karachi and Karachiites.
Turnout will be crucial for both parties.
The writer is senior analyst and columnist of GEO, The News and Jang.