An analysis of premier’s televised address

LAHORE: Although Pakistan is now among nations asking citizens to work from home, as Sindh government is closing all state offices under its control from Thursday onwards, Prime Minister Imran Khan categorically stated in his televised address Tuesday night that his government would not lockdown cities, making a few economists and businessmen heave a sigh of relief.

Quite a few business chambers and trade bodies in the country are already pessimistic that the ruthless beast of coronavirus had made it hard to achieve the GDP growth rate of about three per cent.

The Pakistani premier briefed the nation about how various countries were reacting to the pandemic that was sweeping the world, the adverse economic ramifications of locking down cities and closing down businesses as 25 percent poverty was already haunting the ailing economy.

Well, it is seeming a praiseworthy step initiated by the Pakistani Premier because daily wagers comprise a major chunk of Pakistan’s labour force at a juncture when the national consumption cycle has already broken down with the closure of wedding halls, shopping malls, many food outlets, grave slump in businesses of hotels, recreational facilities, social functions, and a sharp slump in revenues of trains and airlines etc.

According to data produced by the CIA World Factbook, the total number of Pakistan's labour force rests at 75 .14 million (75,143,660), making the country stand among 10 largest countries by available human workforce. About 43 per cent of this labouris involved in agriculture, 20.3 per cent in industry and the remaining 36.6 per cent in other services.

So, one can imagine what havoc would a formal lockdown of businesses wreak if production-related activities in Pakistan come to a grinding halt somehow, as it is fast happening around the planet.

According to the March 6, 2020 edition of the American media house, the “Bloomberg”, the economic fallout of coronavirus could include recessions in the US, euro-area and Japan, the slowest growth on record in China, and a total of $2.7 trillion in lost output - equivalent to the entire GDP of the UK.

The reputed media outlet writes: “That’s the most extreme of four scenarios developed by Bloomberg Economics, drawing on the experience in China, the distribution of cases in other countries, estimates of risks to global supply chains, and a large-scale model of the global economy. With so many unknowns surrounding the trajectory of the epidemic, and the response from government and business, forecasters cannot aspire to precision. But these four scenarios offer a way of tracing the potential effects through countries and industries, and assessing their order of magnitude. Other forecasters are also sounding the alarm.”

The “Bloomberg” maintains: “The OECD cut its expectation for global growth to 2.4% from 2.9%, and warned that it could fall as low as 1.5%. Goldman Sachs expects a global contraction in the first half of the year. Recent forecasts for first-quarter GDP growth in China range from 5.8% all the way down to 0.5%, underscoring the high degree of uncertainty.”

During the course of his televised speech, Premier Imran Khan pledged his regime would arrest food inflation, and take action against hoarders of essential kitchen commodities.

He admitted his compatriots were affected by flour and sugar crises in recent past, but somehow did not give any time frame about apprehending the culprits who made Pakistani pay dearly for the two vital daily-use commodities as soon as their dearth had started haunting the common people. Well, the fears of Imran Khan regarding food inflation are not unfounded.

In China, according to another American newspaper “The wall Street Journal”, consumer goods inflation has already hit its highest point in a decade.

According to “Bloomberg”, China’s general inflation has slowed down as the coronavirus has hammered demand, with a measure of price gains that have stripped out food and energy prices slumping to the weakest in a decade.

Imran Khan, however, admitted the disease would affect the national exports, but refrained from telling the nation that Pakistan’s export orders were actually being cancelled and that there were apprehensions about a fall in foreign remittances from Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Europe and the United States etc.

Having screened 0.9 million people at all national airports till date since February 26 when the first coronavirus case surfaced, as the premier revealed, Pakistan is now faced with a situation where educational institutions have been closed, exams are being re-scheduled, business meetings are being postponed indefinitely, various private businesses are now reportedly finalising work arrangements with many of their employees, whereby these staffers would be required to work remotely without having to come to offices, meaning thereby that those working at production plants of factories would still be required to come physically to operate machines.

According to March 13, 2020 edition of the BBC News, Google, Microsoft, Twitter, Hitachi, Apple, Amazon and Chevron etc. have all rolled out mandatory work-from-home policies amid the spread of this particular virus.

The British media house states: “Some employees will be working from home for the first time, which means figuring out how to stay on task in a new environment that may not lend itself to productivity. But there are ways to deliver results and avoid going stir-crazy, from setting up a good workspace to the way you talk to your team. Coronavirus or not, the key to working from home is clear communication with your boss - and knowing exactly what’s expected of you. Most people spend their days in close proximity to their boss, meaning communication is easy and effortless. But that’s all out the window with remote work, and communication breakdown is even more likely if your workplace isn’t used to remote working.”